Russia in Central Asia must be free of emotions

By Timofey Bordachev

Despite the deepening military-political crisis in relations between Russia and the West, and the uncertain future of Ukraine, Moscow cannot forget about its other neighbours in the former USSR, particularly Central Asia. This region is home to five independent republics that have made significant progress in building their sovereign statehood over the past 32 years.

Furthermore, the Central Asian region holds a crucial position in Russia's foreign policy interests. This fact is often highlighted by comical situations arising from emotional reactions to statements made by politicians or public opinion leaders. Additionally, Central Asia shares borders with Russia and is a key strategic partner of China, which also has a significant Muslim population.

The region's vulnerability to external forces is particularly evident in its susceptibility to economic seduction and subversion through radical religious groups. At the recent investment forum 'European Union - Central Asia,' the chief European diplomat, Josep Borrell, urged the region's countries to increase their cooperation with the EU and pledged investments in the transport sector. However, such promises should not come at the cost of reduced economic cooperation with Russia.
In response to this, the Kazakh authorities announced their intention to transfer approximately 20 airports in the country to European operators. Additionally, Kazakhstan Airlines is the only airline in the CIS countries that is partially owned by a British defense concern. Undoubtedly, in the future, our opponents in the West will attempt to destabilise Central Asia, if not to alienate it from Russia.

Unfortunately, they already have some experience in this area, and the prerequisites for destabilising the region are already present. Two years ago, Kazakhstan experienced a collapse of its statehood due to conflicts within the political and economic elite, exacerbated by unsolvable social problems and poverty among the population. It is uncertain whether the situation has significantly improved since then.

The new Kazakh authorities, with whom Moscow maintains mutually beneficial and respectful relations, frequently discuss reforms and addressing the issues that arose during the first 30 years of independence. However, some local observers express concerns. If Kazakhstan experiences serious social unrest again, Russia will have to decide on the most appropriate response.
This choice may be particularly challenging given the increasing expressions of national identity in the region. These may stem from two factors: the government's desire to strengthen the foundations of statehood, and the pressing socio-economic issues that remain unresolved.

Two years after the CSTO forces, led by Russian peacekeepers, saved the Kazakh state from collapse, some observers question the extent to which the CSTO intervention benefited Russia. Despite biased observers claiming ingratitude, the decision to intervene was correct. An alternative to CSTO intervention would be the collapse of the entire state in Kazakhstan and the disintegration of the country into separate parts.

Therefore, significant resources must be allocated to ensure security on our steppe borders, separate from the main front line in the West. Furthermore, owing to Kazakhstan's geographical location, it plays a crucial role in fostering trade and economic ties between Russia and its allies. The country has emerged as a hub for businesses that are still operating in the Russian market despite the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries.

As of January 2022, it was not arduous to assess the implications and their magnitude in the context of the military standoff with Europe. Although some aspects of Kazakh political culture and Astana's alignment with the West may currently cause dissatisfaction in Russia, the alternative would be far worse. Politics is the art of the possible, and we can only hope that Kazakhstan will gradually move towards a more sustainable path of development from its current uncertain state. If new crises arise for internal reasons, they should occur only after the situation in our western direction has relatively stabilized.
Central Asia is a region where unification of states on an anti-Russian basis is not possible, unlike what is happening in Europe. Russia has traditionally maintained friendly relations and mutual understanding at the political level with all countries in the region. It is unlikely that any of the states in the region will be considered by the West as an independent 'battering ram' against Russian interests, as happened with unfortunate Ukraine. There is no room for human resources and historically educated nationalism in this matter. Our countries' trade, economic relations, investments, and elite-level contacts are all aimed towards the future.

However, Central Asia is a region that is subject to serious internal destabilization factors due to objective reasons. While we highly appreciate the achievements of its leaders, it would be fair and comradely to acknowledge the understandable concerns we have when looking at this region.

It is incorrect to assume that the Central Asian region is a potential Eldorado for economic development. This is due to the fact that the region has a relatively small population compared to other developing countries. In fact, all five republics combined have a smaller population than Vietnam alone, let alone demographic giants such as Pakistan, Bangladesh or Indonesia. Furthermore, this population is either concentrated in small areas of territory suitable for economic activity, as in Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan, or dispersed across the vast expanses of steppe and desert.
The predicted population growth in Central Asia will lead to a decline in the availability of fresh water and other negative consequences of climate change. Even Kyrgyzstan, which has historically been blessed with abundant water resources, is vulnerable to the effects of climate change and may face the issue of half-empty reservoirs this year. It will take a considerable amount of time for the region to attract a significant number of affluent consumers. China recognises this and endeavours to engage in ongoing discussions with Russia regarding the internal affairs of Central Asian countries.

Due to objective factors, Central Asia is likely to fall behind traditional leaders in Southeast or South Asia in future international competition. The neighbouring region has advantages over Africa, primarily due to the infrastructure that was preserved after the USSR. Additionally, Russia and China desire to see their common neighbours relatively prosperous and stable. It should be noted that this is not included in the US plans.
Countering negative external influences and realizing the potential of relations is a crucial task in bilateral relations between Russia and Central Asian countries. Moscow's policy is expected to remain pragmatic, free from excessive emotionality, and focused on fulfilling its ethical duty towards its neighbours.
This article orginally appeared in Russian at iz.ru