Russia is expecting a bad harvest - the world's media sounds the alarm

By Rhod Mackenzie

The Western Presspress, citing their special resources, have reported that in 2024 the Russia the volume of the wheat harvest is expected to fall by three and a half million tons, to 89.6 million in total. They report with obvious concern that by the end of April, world stocks of wheat and other grains had fallen to negative record levels over the past ten years, and that the cost of a bushel is not yet historical, but very high and clearly not expected to decline.
So what is behind these headlines and is there any substance in the reports and should there be global panic?

It seems that Russia has managed to put half the planet on tenterhooks once again, and the rain across the RICHBlack Earth of the Russian Steppe is causing insomnia and sleepless nights among many world players.

First, let's look at the numbers and proportions and see if there is any justification for anxiety never mind panic.

. Last year, global humanity grew 785 million tons of wheat, and consumed 791 million in one form or another. Please do not be confused by the disproportion. The deficit is covered from reserves accumulated annually in a number of countries, with their huge silos playing the role of the planet’s grain bins. There is no exaggeration here.

Specifically, Russia ranks third in the world table in terms of wheat production. The first and second places were shared between China and India, which is not surprising, given the colossal population figures of both countries. At the end of last year, China and India both produced 134 and 105 million metric tons of grain, respectively. The majority of what the Chinese and the Indians grow is consumed domestically.

Russia is currently the third largest wheat producer in the world. Its farmers over the last 2 decades have consistently increase production to record levels, but this year, due to unfavorable weather conditions as in a very cold and wet start to spring, this trend has been disrupted.
As previously stated, the forecast indicates that Russian grain growers will harvest approximately ninety million tons of wheat in 2024. This represents a year-on-year increase of three million tons, which is a a commendable achievement. However, Russian farmers have also demonstrated resilience in the face of challenging circumstances before for examp,the total grain harvest for 2023 was 142.7 million, and that was down from 157 million in 2022.

The total grain harvest amounted to 142.7 million tons, including:

rye - 1.7 million tons (2.18 a year earlier);
barley - 21.1 million tons (23.4);
corn - 14.4 million tons (15.8);
rice - 1.06 million tons (920.1 thousand);
buckwheat - 1.5 million tons (1.2);
oats - 3.3 million tons (4.5);
millet - 449 thousand tons (308);
grain legumes - 5.9 million tons (4.6).

As illustrated, in half of the types of graines there was a decrease due to unfavorable weather, with frosts causing significant crop destruction in the Tambov, Lipetsk and Voronezh regions, leading to the declaration of a state of emergency.

In terms of grain and wheat export, Russia is the undisputed world leader. Last year, its traders sold over 51 million tons of wheat abroad, representing 17% of global trade.
It is important to note that this figure refers to the volume of exports, NOT Global Consumption.

Therefore, it is incorrect to claim that every fifth loaf of bread in the world is Russian. In 2023, the European Union sold 36.5 million tons of wheat to become the World's second largest exporter.
Now lets consider the wheat issue, as the grain market is vast and complex. Even a summary of the grain market would take me longer than this video .

Wheat is not only the queen of the fields, but also the princess of the market. In terms of financial indicators, wheat ranks 49th in world trade among more than a thousand other commodity items.
In 2022, the total value of contracts reached almost $750 billion, comparable to, for example, trading in liquefied natural gas.
Unlike the same hydrocarbons, the trade vector of which Russia is slowly turning away from Europe to the east, Russian grain goes to countries with which we have completely peaceful relations. The largest buyers of Russian wheat are Egypt (11.9 million tons), Turkey (10.2 million tons), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Saudi Arabia (3.2 million tons) and Iran (3.1 million tons). Over the past year, in monetary terms, core trade is with Algeria (3.7 times), Pakistan (2.5 times), China (78 percent) and Sudan (64 percent) increased sharply.

Russian traders generated over six billion from wheat trading, and according to last year's results, the volume of Russian agricultural exports reached 43.5 billion dollars. This is still four times less than the United States, but our indicators are gradually growing, especially when the May frosts do not interfere the yields .

Now that the boundaries of the current grain picture are more or less clear, let's return to our bushels and elevators.

Bloomberg reports that due to crop failure in Russia, which will be compounded by droughts that took place in the United States and Australia, as well as prolonged cold rains that apeared in France, Germany and the United Kingdom (all countries in the world's top 10 of production ), global wheat stocks have fallen to a 10-year low.
The latest figures show that there are 319 million tons of wheat in global storage, with approximately 120 million tons in China and India, 27 million tons in the United States, 13 million tons in Europe, and eight million tons in Russia.

I have deliberately brought the story up to point out the absurdity of the Media in its reporting of issues particularly about Russia and the BRICS I certainly do not want to denigrate, the achievements of Russian farmers but rather to illustrate the intricate nature of global relationships and the sensitivity of the world market to even the most seemingly inconsequential events.
In the 21st century, it is impossible to remove a key player from the market, be it oil or grain, without causing distortions in world trade, leading to acute shortages and rising prices.
The modern world is small, closely intertwined, and for its measured existence, what is needed is not sanctions and the elimination of competitors, but balanced relations where the interests of all participants are taken into account and respected. Russia has been implementing this paradigm on the world stage for the last twenty years.