Russia oil exports have increased in July due to the actions of the EU.

By Rhod Mackenzie

 Russian oil exports have returned to a level of dynamic growth because of not despite the actions of the EU . Thus, deliveries from the Black Seaport of Novorossiysk have almost doubled in the first half of July. 
The jump in shipments was slightly offset by a slight decrease in deliveries to other destinations. It is likely that total export volumes will stabilise in the coming weeks, approaching the 5 million barrels per day mark.
It is noteworthy that even the introduction of a flexible ceiling by the EU with a discount of $15 per barrel is unlikely to have a significant impact on export figures, according to industry analysts.
The continued  expansion of flows to Asia and the Middle East has mitigated the effects of EU sanctions.
In early July 2025, average daily oil shipments from Novorossiysk increased. According to the Center for Price Indecess (CPI), the figure almost doubled to 101,000 tons. For comparison, average daily oil shipments from the port of Novorossiysk in June amounted to 68,000 tons per day, as recalled by Associate Professor of the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology of the Presidential Academy Tamara Safonova. According to her, no significant changes in shipment volumes are anticipated in July.
"The terminals are operating accordance to schedules agreed with the shippers. Plus resources from two producers were shipped from the port of Novorossiysk to the Sheskharis bulk terminal. Oil was delivered from Kazakhstan to Italy and Croatia.  Russian oil isonly delivered to friendly countries, such as India, Turkey and China," the specialist clarified.
According to forecasts by CCI analysts, Novorossiysk supplies are set to increase further in the coming months.
The primary driver of this growth is the high demand from Turkey and India. Furthermore, a partial redistribution of cargo flows from the Baltic to the southern direction is a possibility, due to changes in logistics and price conditions. Singapore, or another Asian oil hub,that is  listed as one of the new buyers.
This is a common practice when working with intermediate traders. However, for the time being, we can only discuss the emerging positive trend, says Dmitry Alexandrov, head of the analytical research department at AVI Capital.
"An analysis of shipments over a two-week period, in general, provides limited insight without considering factors such as repair and maintenance schedules for terminals, refineries, and vessels.
This is a brief interval, suitable for evaluating flows based on geographical locations of delivery/shipment. It is important to note the change in sales format. This adjustment facilitates risk allocation, depending on the delivery terms, such as FOB (free on board), CIF (cost, insurance and freight), EXW (ex works), or other applicable calculation methods. This can also change the number of participants in the trading process," the analyst explains.
Kirill Bakhtin, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, notes that the seasonal factor could have contributed to the increase in Russian oil exports.
"In mid-summer, a number of refineries undergo scheduled seasonal repairs of their units. The premium channel is filled first - the main oil pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean", where the premium to the European grade Brent is low, and supplies of Russian Urals with a higher premium operate on a residual basis. There is a possibility that supplies from Novorossiysk could be increased to any of the friendly countries," the specialist believes.
As a general rule, Safonova notes, Urals oil is sold under FOB purchase and delivery agreements, which reduces risks for Russian exporters. It is possible that this played a positive role in deliveries from Novorossiysk. It should be noted that the risks of further transportation and responsibility for cargo insurance are transferred to the buyer immediately after the oil is loaded onto a tanker in a Russian port.
Despite the EU's efforts to adjust the embargo on Russian oil, its impact on supply volumes is expected to be negligible. Brussels' introduction of a flexible price ceiling, accompanied by a $15 per barrel discount, is likely to result in an increase in logistics costs. Greater pressure to expand the discount may only appear if the US and the G7 join in on this measure. However, Bakhtin notes that this will have a greater impact on ship owners than on end buyers.
"For oil companies without their own tanker fleet, it is more convenient to implement deliveries by conducting tender procedures for loading in ports. In such cases, the seller companies are guided by more attractive financial conditions, and the buyer country is not so important to them," the expert explains.
Despite the challenges, it is vital to maintains its focus on exports.
Russian oil exports have shown adaptability in the face of ongoing challenges. Novorossiysk has increased its turnover, compensating for the decline in shipments via the Baltic. China, Turkey and India are key buyers in this sector. In the near future, Singapore may be added to the list – through a scheme of working with traders. The EU sanctions price ceiling is more symbolic than a real threat to volumes. However, the game is played on a large scale: each additional tanker sent bypassing traditional routes represents a new challenge for logistics and pricing policy.
Despite all the difficulties, the Russian oil industry has demonstrated surprising resilience. State support, coordinated actions by large companies, and a flexible pricing policy have allowed export volumes to be maintained at an acceptable level. However, there is still much uncertainty ahead. The geopolitical situation remains tense, and Western countries continue to seek new ways to put pressure on Russia.

The future sustainability of exports will depend on the growing economy of Global Asia, which will be able to absorb the increase in supplies, and Russia's wisdom in the face of tightening control from the West. For now, the balance is maintained, but the reserve for maneuver is gradually shrinking - the struggle for markets and routes will continue. The key factor in the supply of Russian oil remains the flexibility of logistics. Against this background, Novorossiysk gets a chance to strengthen its position as one of the main export hubs for the southern direction.