Russia,Saudi Arabia and UAE are playing a Global Game

By Timofey Bordachev

The visit of the Russian President to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as the extensive program of negotiations of the delegation accompanying him, is an excellent indicator of how much freer the leading countries of the World Majority have become in their actions over the past year and a half.

At first glance, it should have turned out the other way around - for 18 months already, high-ranking representatives of various departments of the United States and the European Union have been traveling around the world and demanding that various states curtail their relations with Moscow. But the effect is the opposite: trade, technological cooperation and various contacts of non-Western countries with Russia are only increasing.

Bilateral trade with the Emirates reached $9 billion in 2022, despite the fact that we are competitors in the main export products. And apparently, it will exceed this figure in 2023. Trade turnover with Saudi Arabia is also growing. And in general, none of the countries important for Russian foreign trade have shown a decrease in bilateral trade and other contacts with us.

The only exceptions are European countries, which, strictly speaking, are themselves a party to the conflict in what is happening around Ukraine. Thus, instead of increasing US dominance in world affairs, we see it weakening. As a consolation, Washington gets Finland as a NATO member, which is difficult to count as a colossal acquisition even on a regional scale. Against the backdrop of how countries even like Japan or South Korea are sabotaging Western sanctions against Russia, the Americans getting a couple of new satellites in the European north looks like an unfavorable exchange of losses and gains.

What is the reason for this paradoxical result? It seems that the main thing here is that it is obvious to the whole world that the United States is not in the best shape. And the longer their inability to oppose Russia with anything serious continues, the more pressure Washington experiences from states whose loyalty it did not even have to doubt a few years ago.

In order to convince their former allies to curb their appetites, the Americans now lack the money and political will. And it’s too late to do this against the background of the growing influence of BRICS, Chinese development projects and Russia’s openness to any forms of cooperation with those who are guided by their national interests.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have been the closest partners of the United States in the Arab East for decades. Their security and, in a sense, even their physical survival depended on the quality of relations with the Americans. After the end of the Cold War, the US was able to further strengthen its presence there when it took advantage of Saddam Hussein's attack on Kuwait in 1990 and attacked Iraq itself 13 years later.

Traditionally, the American military presence is considered by Arab monarchies as a guarantee against possible encroachments from Iran. All this allowed the United States to feel quite confident in this region. However, over the past decade and a half, the situation has begun to change. And after the conflict between Russia and the West moved into the military-technical plane, these changes took on a rapid character. No one among the Arab oil states is ready to talk to the United States as if nothing happened.

No one expects Saudi Arabia or the Emirates to completely become Russia's allies and opponents of the West. But at the same time, we should not perceive the independent behavior of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula only as a primitive way to raise their shares in the dialogue with the United States. This would be too simple - and it does not correspond to the basic principles of behavior of any state in a chaotic international environment. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and many others are striving not just to slightly improve their position, but to create new conditions for dialogue with the Americans. And since this presupposes equality, for the United States it is equivalent to their crushing defeat: Washington does not know how to interpret international politics otherwise.

If we look at the main items on the agenda of negotiations between the Russian leader and the leadership of both powers of the Arabian Peninsula, we will see that they all reflect changes that were previously difficult to think about. This agenda consists of three main points: energy, the conflict around Israel and BRICS. In all three stories, we see serious disagreements between the Arabs and Washington, the inability of the Americans to compromise, and the confidence of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates that they can achieve changes beneficial to themselves. Russia here acts as an alternative pole, also interested in establishing fairer rules of the game.

The most established part of our cooperation with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula is the coordination of policies to manage the global oil market. The OPEC+ format allows the parties to agree on positions regarding oil production volumes, avoid competition or unilateral actions that could harm other producing countries.

Let us recall that 40 years ago it was the USSR’s reckless export strategy in the oil market that became one of the reasons for the split between us and the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan only worsened the conflict, the basis of which was in the economic sphere. Now Russia operates according to modern rules of intervention in the free market of energy resources. This completely suits both Moscow and the Arabs, who value the opportunity to independently manage their most important resource.

The second most important issue in Vladimir Putin’s negotiations today is the situation around Israel and the Gaza Strip . Here, over the past two months, the United States has done everything to undermine the credibility of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf. There is no dispute; Saudi Arabia or the Emirates do not have the capacity or political will to take a tough stand against Israel’s actions. Let's not forget that the Israelis, after all, have nuclear weapons - and no one can take the associated risks. However, the Arabs are quite reasonably dissatisfied with the policy of the United States, which has taken a position of unconditional support for its Israeli charges. The Americans, with their own hands, have created a situation where they are no longer the only major partner to whom all parties to the conflict can appeal.

The third topic on the official agenda of the visit is related to the upcoming entry of both countries into the BRICS group in January. And if the first two points were about the economy and regional security, then the last one is about the prospects for global governance. Joining the main organization, which represents an alternative to the West on a global scale, will mean for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula a qualitative change in their international position. The transition to the major league of world politics does not automatically simply increase their importance in the dialogue with the United States and Europe. It creates a fundamentally new context for this dialogue, as for all other external relations. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates will be able to choose to deal with the West not one-on-one, but as part of a more powerful community.

For Russia, all this means moving towards a world order where our interests will be fully reflected. Not to mention the fact that the participation of such wealthy countries in BRICS will help to more quickly move towards the erosion of the monopoly position of the US dollar, the transition to national currencies in trade and the establishment of alternative payment systems. In this regard, greater independence of partners from the countries of the Arabian Peninsula is only useful for Russia, and necessary for a sustainable world order.
Timofey Bordachev is program director of the Valdai Club and this article was translated and edited by Rhod Mackenzie