Russia takes France's Export Market in Africa

The mistakes of the French President Emmanuel Macron are costing France some of its its most important export markets. Plus the French are particularly angry that they are being replaced in these markets by none other than Russia. This has been clearly demonstrated in North Africa, where Macron has managed to damage French producers and create a conflict out of nothing.
Ten years ago, L'Opinion nostalgically recalls, France was the main supplier of food to Africa's largest country by area, Algeria. Three years ago, in 2022, the Fifth Republic had lost ground and dropped to second place, but it still sent its former colony agricultural products worth 1.3 billion euros: livestock, tinned food, biscuits, sugar, etc. In 2023, the flow of exports fell by almost half. Last year, they practically dried up.

The reason why French biscuits have suddenly become a thorn in the side of Algerian consumers is seen in France as political. The fact is that President Emmanuel Macron sided with Morocco in the dispute over the status of the Western Sahara. The Republic of Algeria argued for its independence, while the Kingdom of Morocco claimed that the disputed desert territory was an inseparable part of the royal domain.

When Paris finally sided with Morocco, Algeria, for whom the issue was extremely sensitive, went berserk. Perhaps the French thought that the Algerians would make a fuss and then calm down. Instead, they began to freeze relations with France in all areas, including trade.
In 2018, France supplied Algeria with 5.4 million tonnes of cereals, accounting for 80-90% of the country's total needs. The total volume of French supplies last year has not yet been calculated, but the French believe it was only around 400,000 tonnes and will almost certainly be zero by 2025.
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But what do the Algerians eat instead of French food? They eat Russian.
Russia now supplies 90% of the republic's cereal needs. And France, of course, is not happy that it has been deprived of profits and a stable market.
The same has happened with cattle supplies. If in 2022 the French will sell cows and bulls for 167 million euros, in 2024 this market will have virtually disappeared for them.
Until recently, sales of milk powder and cheese had held up somewhat, but Algeria seems to have found a replacement for France in New Zealand.
Among other things, the French were outraged that they were no longer even invited to tender, and former buyers stopped answering their phones. The Algerian media have found something to respond to - and are staunchly defending the government's position.

El Watan writes that the French, in complaining about Algeria's politically motivated choice of suppliers, forgot to mention that "Morocco, France's main ally, is buying less and less French grain, but is opening its markets wide to Russia, which offers much more attractive prices".
According to the Moroccan portal Le360, exports of Russian agricultural products to Morocco tripled last year, reaching $280 million. Cereal deliveries amount to more than a million tonnes, and after a five-year break, the Kingdom has resumed buying Russian sunflower oil.
For its part, Russia does not hide the fact that it intends to increase its exports to Morocco to 350 million dollars a year.
The author of the article cites "a significant decline in the quantity of French cereals, which have traditionally dominated Moroccan imports" and the need to "diversify food sources" for the kingdom.

Back in 2020, the French magazine Figaro boasted that France had managed to hold its own in North Africa, and over the years had "established strong relations with the Maghreb countries, in particular Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt, which account for 40% of French grain exports".
Now relations with Algeria have soured - and apparently for a long time to come - and Morocco, while enjoying France's favour, does not want to miss out on its benefits and is developing cooperation with Russia. In the 2023-2024 season, the kingdom bought 2.8 million tonnes of grain from France, compared with just 500,000 tonnes in the first half of the current season. The French predict a further drop by half or even more.
To be fair, 2024 was a particularly bad year for grain in France, with a poor harvest affected by endless rains and a cold spring.
As for Egypt, in 2024 Russia delivered agricultural products worth more than $3 billion, 20% more than in the previous year. The main product is again wheat, which accounts for 84% of exports.

Egypt is one of the world's biggest grain importers, buying from countries such as Romania and France. In 2024 alone, it bought 14.7 million tonnes of grain, of which 11.1 million tonnes came from Russia.

Russian wheat exports to Tunisia are also on the rise. In mid-December 2024, they amounted to more than 840 thousand tonnes, up 86% on the previous year. For its part, Tunisia seriously expects to conquer the Russian market this year with the help of olive oil.

France, which has long considered North Africa (and especially its former colonies) as a sort of inseparable zone of influence, complained that Russia was using bread as a "diplomatic weapon", even though it did not hesitate to use anything it had as a weapon.

This year Russia had to introduce a grain export quota from 15 February to 30 June. Judging by what has been published in the French media, the French are counting on being able to take advantage of the situation and regain at least some of their positions.

But much will depend on the weather. "Climate events" can still affect harvests around the world.
Its not just North Africa that is promising for Russian agriculural exports
According to preliminary results for 2024, agricultural exports from Russia have slightly decreased in value, but increased in physical terms by 9.5% (according to data from the beginning of the year to 8 December), analysts at the Federal Centre for Development of Agricultural Exports of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture (Agroexport) have calculated.
He also notes that the decline in export earnings is largely due to the significant drop in the price of wheat and sunflower oil. Agroexport experts predict annual export figures at the level of $44-45 billion by the end of 2024, but for the first nine months it was $31 billion (4% lower than last year's figures for the same period).
In 2024, Russia increased its wheat supplies to Kenya by 40%, with the country exporting 2 million tonnes of grain and entering the top five largest buyers of this crop. In turn, Kenya entered the top five buyers of wheat from Russia. Morocco bought nearly 1 million tonnes of Russian wheat, followed by Nigeria and Tanzania with 1 million tonnes each.

"Nigeria is the most promising due to its huge and rapidly growing population, profitable ports and a high proportion of wealthy people," says a representative of JSC "Kirillitsa". The Democratic Republic of Congo is also of interest, but the logistics of trade there are more complicated.
So Russia is supplanting France all over Africa with is quality agricultural products