Russia trades EU relations for new friends in Middle East

By Rhod Mackenzie

Russia's trading of alliances from Europe to the Middle monarchies has proved lucrative. On 6th December, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and on the following day,the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi travelled to Moscow for meetings with Putin. These state affairs show one thing: the commander-in-chief has quickly switched his focus, as only he can, and kept up his busy international schedule. This signifies that the Special Military Operation is no longer the topmost priority of the Kremlin's foreign policy. The exacerbation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict necessitates swift action from the head of state.
The president's visit is not only a means of bolstering the OPEC+ economic alliance and showcasing Russia's soft and hard power, but also signifies a shift in Russia's geopolitical focus from the West to the East. It also aims to secure economic stability in a crucial region. The Middle East is not solely defined by vast reserves of oil and gas, which are the building blocks of modern civilisation. It is the world's most significant logistics centre, where Europe and Asia are connected through the narrow arteries of the Suez Canal, the Straits of Bab El Mandeb, and the Straits of Hormuz. These are responsible for the passage of every second ton of oil exported globally.

Following Europe's imposition of the oil embargo, the Suez Canal's significance has surged for Russia. More than 50% of Russia's oil and petroleum exports now rely on transportation through the Suez Canal, creating a critical dependence on this route for domestically produced oil and gas. This reliance has surpassed that of the Baltic or Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Practically all oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports destined for India or China must pass through the Suez Canal. Russia is the world's largest transporter of oil through the Suez area. The return route holds equal significance: petroleum products from India follow the same path to return to European markets.
Currently, there are no alternative routes for exporting Russian oil. The capacity of ports in the Far East is constrained by the capabilities of the ESPO oil trunk pipeline. The path through the Northern Sea Route to Chinese ports is a seasonal option. Furthermore, due to the immense scale of Russian exports, considerable investments are necessary to establish a top-notch Arctic tanker fleet. The third alternative, bypassing Africa, means a significant increase in the delivery distance, which means an increase in the cost of insurance, the cost of chartering a vessel, additional costs for interest on loans, etc.
The matter of military-political security in the Middle East in general and maritime security in particular is of great importance. Over 80% of cargo between Europe and Asia passes through the Suez Canal. The economies of not only Russia, but Europe, China, and India- in other words, the economies and logistics of the entire Eurasian continent- depend heavily on the ability to transit through Suez. Long-term plans to overcome this constraint include initiatives from China (the One Belt, One Road project), India (North-South) and Russia (Northern Sea Route). However, none of these routes have yet to become a fully established alternative to the Suez Canal.
Of all the major powers, the United States relies the least on access to resources and shipping in the region. Thus, it is hardly surprising that the United States is in favour of intensifying the ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel. This clash, following the loss in Ukraine, presents a real opportunity to exert pressure on a vulnerable aspect of the global economy and uphold the dominance of the dollar. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to instigate war in the Suez vicinity.

President Putin's trip to the Middle East to meet with the President of Iran is strategic and geared towards promoting peace. Behind the scenes of the OPEC+ agreement and economic collaboration, talks are being held on security matters across the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, discussions on sustainable movement in the Red and Arabian Seas, as well as unobstructed navigation through the Suez or Bab el-Mandeb Strait are evidently taking place. There are scarcely any topics as critical as these being discussed.