Russia will have to show diplomatic skill over BRICS expansion

By Rhod Mackenzie

Pakistan plans to become a member of the BRICS in the near future. The group is gaining popularity among countries worldwide, but the inclusion of a major Islamic and nuclear power may not receive support from other members, particularly India.  Can Russia resolve the conflicts between Islamabad and New Delhi, and what advantages would Pakistan's entry bring to Moscow?
Pakistan has requested to join BRICS in 2024. The newly-appointed ambassador of the country to Russia, Muhammad Khalid Jamali, informed TASS that Islamabad is currently in communication with all member states of the association to seek support for BRICS accession. He highlighted the need for Moscow's assistance in this regard.

Jamali also confirmed that Pakistan expects to become a member of the community next year. It is noteworthy that Islamabad is not alone in expressing interest in joining BRICS this year.

Thus, at the 15th summit of the organisation, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that in 2024, the current five member states will be joined by six new additions: Argentina, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia. This potent expansion will result in BRICS being more than twice the size of the G7 and over four times the population size.
There will be a substantial rise in the year when Russia presides over the BRICS. Furthermore, the member states expressed complete backing for the Russian Federation's position in 2024. Furthermore, the member states expressed complete backing for the Russian Federation's position in 2024. VZGLYAD newspaper provided extensive coverage of Moscow's anticipation of new member nations.

Meanwhile, Venezuela also intends to become a member of the organization. This announcement was made by Carlos Ron, the Deputy Head of the North American Affairs Division at the Republic's Foreign Ministry. Ron stated during the sidelines of the 20th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club that Caracas aims to become a part of BRICS during the second phase of expansion.  He expressed optimism that it could enhance the development of the whole community.

Several leaders are discussing the potential increase in the number of BRICS members. During an interview with the China Media Corporation, Vladimir Putin stated that expanding the organisation "is grounded in objective reality." The president added that all member states of the association "support the notion and concept of creating a multipolar world." The Kremlin's official website quoted him saying, "No one wants to be sidelined by any sovereign; everyone seeks equal relations."
The analyst community observes that Pakistan joining BRICS will enable Moscow to enhance economic ties with Islamabad. Nevertheless, this expansion could cause tension within the association, as India will likely view the entry of its leading regional rival into BRICS unfavourably. Russia will need to become an adept diplomatic mediator between Islamabad and New Delhi in this scenario.
"Islamabad desires to expand its influence among the nations of the Global South. Nevertheless, I believe it unlikely that Pakistan will be able to promptly join BRICS. The organisation is not prepared to admit new members, as it has yet to fully realise and put into practice the previous expansion," commented Gleb Makarevich, a junior researcher at the Centre for the Indian Ocean Region of the IMEMO RAS.

"On one hand, Pakistan's inclusion in BRICS would enhance the association's representation due to its significant Muslim population and influential status within the Islamic world. Furthermore, its possession of nuclear weapons adds further value. However, India may oppose Islamabad's entry. Nevertheless, as both countries already collaborate in the SCO, they possess experience with joint initiatives," notes the speaker.

"For Russia, Pakistan’s participation in the BRICS summit will present numerous economic opportunities. The interaction between our countries has been consistently growing since 2014. Islamabad, for instance, provides us with textiles. Our alliance in the pharmaceutical industry is also thriving," he highlights.

"In theory, Pakistan has the potential to become a significant market for Russian oil. As the country is in need of energy resources, it is entirely possible to expand our collaboration in this sector." However, the analyst stresses the need for closer interaction experience in order to execute such large-scale plans. 
“Interaction with Pakistan in the political sphere is also possible, although serious diplomatic breakthroughs should not be expected. There are no contradictions between our countries. We can work together in international organizations, and also cooperate on the issue of Afghanistan,” Makarevich explained.

Economist Ivan Lizan has a different point of view. According to him, Pakistan's accession will not bring much practical benefit to either Russia or BRICS as a whole. "India will oppose any such expansion as the relationship between these countries is hostile. Moreover, Islamabad is under Beijing's influence, and New Delhi has differences with China," Lizan stated.

"The collaboration between Russia and Pakistan will not yield significant benefits. Despite it being a reasonably-sized market where we can sell our oil, Islamabad demands a considerable discount. Lizan emphasized that joining BRICS is yet another attempt by Pakistan to obtain cheap energy resources."
"We don't have anything to buy from Pakistan. Islamabad trades in agricultural products, but we can procure them from Iran or India if required. While we can work together on addressing the matter of Afghanistan, Islamabad's ability to influence Kabul is constrained," the speaker points out.

 "Moreover, I am sceptical about Pakistan's potential to assist us in developing an autonomous financial infrastructure, as it cannot replace India as our strategic partner. We find support from Iran and China to be more beneficial."  "Furthermore, due to Islamabad's political instability, cooperating with Pakistan carries significant risks," emphasizes Lizan.

Nevertheless, Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of "Russia in Global Affairs" magazine and scientific director of the Valdai Club, suggests that Pakistan's intentions to join BRICS should receive attention. "However, considering India's membership in the association, I do not believe that Islamabad will be able to join the organization through a simplified process." We can only hope that the parties can resolve the existing contradictions, as stated by the expert.

The potential development of economic ties with Pakistan is not expected to yield significant results, given the country's current circumstances. Like many others, Pakistan is caught in the ring of American sanctions, and the state certainly does not want to worsen its situation. 

The analyst explains that while it is one thing to talk about the harmful influence of Washington, actually attempting to destroy it is another matter entirely.

"Nevertheless, BRICS could stimulate Russia’s trade with Pakistan. However, further developments should not be expected. We have been successful in providing energy supplies to Pakistan, and the partnership is gradually progressing. Regrettably, bilateral relations are not solely dependent on our nations," clarifies the speaker.

"Undeniably, Islamabad is open to closer collaboration with Moscow." This is evident in certain political remarks made by leaders of a particular state. Although nothing has transpired beyond rhetoric, verbal support is costly in the current circumstances," highlights the political expert.

"Overall, Pakistan's inclusion in BRICS is quite favourable. Still, the organization has announced plans for expansion, and making advancements at the cost of a significant Muslim nation is a substantial step towards gaining political influence. Russia, for their part, are content with this development. As Lukyanov has articulated: "The more non-Western countries in the community, the better."