Russia will reach peak gold production in 2030

By Rhod Mackenzie

Gold production in Russia is likely to peak at 600 tonnes by 2030, before beginning to decline. This was reported by the newspaper Vedomosti, which refers to a study by the Federal State Budgetary Institution TsNIGRI.

600 tonnes is the base scenario, whereas production is expected to exceed 700 tonnes in the progressive scenario by including the participation of predicted resources and reserves from the unallocated fund for industrial development. There is a third scenario to consider - a conservative approach whereby new projects in the Russian Federation are not launched at all. As a result, peak production will be achieved in 2024.

TsNIGRI explains that there will be a decline in gold production after 2030 due to limited reserve increases in gold deposits, poor participation in the industrial development of new gold deposits at complex sites (containing copper, nickel, etc.), and a gradual deterioration in the reserve structure, particularly a decrease in the total reserves shares of industrial reserves (ABC1). According to TsNIGRI, the proportion of gold reserves in the ABC1 category declined to 56% in 2022 from its highest point of 67% in 2008. At complex fields, the figure dropped to 59%, from a prior level of 72% in 2006. This decline is primarily attributed to new projects where the reserves have not yet been developed.

By 2040, gold production in Russia will fall below 400 tons in the base scenario and below 500 tons in the progressive scenario. If the base scenario is implemented, TsNIGRI predicts that the reserves of the distributed subsoil fund will be halved to 7,147 tonnes by 2040.
At the 9th All-Russian Forum of Subsoil Users, the acting General Director of TsNIGRI, Anatoly Ivanov, reported that although the gold mineral resource base has grown consistently over the last two decades, there is a risk of decline in the forthcoming years. This is because the potential for replenishing gold reserves through further exploration of the distinctive gold deposits at Natalka, Sukholozhskoye, and Olimpiadinskoye has been exhausted, coupled with reduced prospects for discovering new gold deposits, resulting from a drop in the "exploration reserve."

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, the state program "Reproduction and Use of Natural Resources" and the federal project "Geology: Revival of a Legend" have been launched to enhance and develop Russia's mineral resource base. It is projected that by 2030, geological understanding of the Far East will rise from 35% to 65% on average. An increment in gold reserves of approximately 570 tonnes is anticipated.

Between 2005 and 2022, the reproduction of gold ore reserves was primarily driven by three Polyus deposits - Natalkinskoye, Sukhoi Log, and Olimpiadinskoye. Together, they contributed 40% (4268 tonnes) to the overall growth, with 44% (3211 tonnes) falling into the ABC1 category. Olimpiada reserves increased by 449.2 tonnes in 2023, out of which 185.2 tonnes were in industrial categories, according to the State Reserves Committee.

According to estimations from the MRA, gold production in Russia amounted to 371 tonnes in 2022, inclusive of scrap processing. There is a likelihood of an increase to 390 tonnes by the year-end of 2023 and a possible increase to 400 tonnes in 2024. Direct subsoil production makes up approximately 85% of this total.