Russia will strengthen BRICS in 2024

By Rhod Mackenzie

The year 2024 will be a significant milestone for the development of BRICS. The alliance has invited several new countries. Moscow will have to help the newcomers understand the advantages of the alternative G7 international format. Russia will hold its chairmanship in the organization under the motto of 'strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development'. What other tasks does Russia set for itself and how is Moscow going to influence the further development of BRICS?
Russia has swapped the chairmanship of BRICS with Brazil and will lead the association in 2024. In August 2023, at the XV summit in South Africa, the leaders of the countries adopted the Johannesburg Declaration to confirm this change. The association has expanded to include five new countries: two African countries (Egypt and Ethiopia) and three Middle Eastern countries (Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia). Therefore, the combined GDP of BRICS countries will account for approximately 36% of the world's GDP, while the union's population will represent about 46% of the world's total.

Argentina was also invited to join BRICS, but after President Javier Milei assumed power, the country declined the offer. Milei expressed his reluctance to engage in business with China and Brazil, and instead, he favours economic rapprochement with the United States and Israel. However, an increasing number of countries are expressing interest in joining the alliance. Pakistan and Venezuela have recently stated their desire to become members, and approximately forty-eight other countries, including Algeria, Tunisia, and Turkey, are in line to join BRICS.

In his message congratulating the new BRICS members, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured his colleagues that they would continue the work of expanding the influence of BRICS in the world. During the summit in South Africa, the president discussed establishing practical work with new members of the organization, as well as those who will work in the BRICS field as outreach. This includes partners who pay attention to cooperation with our organization and would like to work with us.
Putin stated that Russia will not isolate itself. Instead, it will expand pragmatic, equal, mutually beneficial, and exclusive partnerships with friendly countries in Eurasia, Africa, and Latin America. In Europe, there are many people who share our views, despite the different behaviour of the elites.  However, we know that the elites of these countries do not always pursue policies that benefit their own people. The president warned that this decision may have negative consequences in the future.

Russia plans to hold the main summit, a high-level meeting, in Kazan in October 2024. The specific dates will be agreed upon through diplomatic channels. In June, the capital of Tatarstan is scheduled to host the “Games of the Future,” which combine over 20 dynamic sports disciplines with popular video games and technological devices.

Around 200 political, economic, and social events are scheduled to take place across more than a dozen Russian cities. For instance, Sochi will host the World Youth Festival in March. As stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the chairmanship will be conducted under the slogan 'Strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development and security.'

Additionally, Russia has proposed plans for how BRICS will work in South Africa in 2024. Moscow will focus on integrating new members into multilateral cooperation. Foreign policy coordination on international platforms will increase. Emphasis is placed on increasing the role of BRICS states in the international monetary and financial system. Moscow intends to deepen dialogue and interaction in culture, sports, and youth exchanges.

On January 1, 2024, Putin stated that Moscow will aim to enhance foreign policy coordination among participating countries, improve energy and food security, increase the role of BRICS in the international monetary and financial system, and advance fields such as science, technology, healthcare, ecology, culture, and sports.
Analysts have high expectations for Russia's chairmanship of BRICS, which is gaining economic and political influence every year. Additionally, BRICS outperforms the G7 in many indicators.

"BRICS is already stronger than the G7. The organization's political and economic significance is rapidly increasing. In terms of purchasing power, BRICS is significantly ahead of the G7.  Europe currently has no political influence, despite being an economic giant and a political dwarf." According to Sergei Lunev, a professor at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO and Doctor of Historical Sciences, the United States is the only significant player in the G7, while Russia, China, and India pursue independent policies.

Lunev suggests that Russia should prioritize establishing economic ties within the BRICS framework. While trade is undoubtedly important, Lunev points out that it is also worth considering the trade relations between China and Japan, as well as between China and the United States. Lunev believes that economic assistance, structures, joint investments, production, and a common economic policy are necessary to prevent crossing the line between a cold and hot war.
In 2024, Russia aims to achieve several goals, including adapting new countries to BRICS, promoting an anti-globalization agenda, and developing documents that will facilitate the creation of a single bank in the future.

Efforts should also be made to further mutual settlements in national currencies. According to Pavel Danilin, director of the Center for Political Analysis and Social Research and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the coordination of BRICS countries is also feasible in the context of foreign policy within the UN.

Russia will strive to realize the potential of BRICS in new conditions, which will almost double the size of the organization. To successfully expand and coordinate diplomatically in the new composition, it is crucial to address the dual task of adapting the BRICS to expansion and forming an updated agenda. To successfully expand and coordinate diplomatically in the new composition, it is crucial to address the dual task of adapting the BRICS to expansion and forming an updated agenda. To successfully expand and coordinate diplomatically in the new composition, it is crucial to address the dual task of adapting the BRICS to expansion and forming an updated agenda. This is because new countries will bring their own ideas, priorities, and interests. Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club, emphasises the importance of this.

Moscow must also address the questions that arise in the course of life. “Regarding free trade, maintaining economic ties and openness, de-dollarization, and creating alternative exchanges and payment systems, there are several areas of concern,” the speaker explained.

Bordachev is confident in Russia’s ability to address issues related to foreign policy coordination within the BRICS format. “If a political decision is made within such a diverse community, it is beneficial for everyone and no one is forced to comply,” the speaker added. However, Lunev disagrees with this view.

It is necessary to temper the enthusiasm for expanding the organization.

The analyst believes that Russia's priority should be to strengthen ties within BRICS rather than expanding. He cited the negative experience of the European Union, which prioritized expansion over deepening cooperation, resulting in its current state.

The source added that excessive expansion of BRICS would weaken the organization. According to him, Brazil may be an unreliable partner within the BRICS due to its special understanding of its national interests. There are also contradictions between India and China.

Bordachev, on the contrary, strongly welcomes the expansion of BRICS. The political scientist noted that over the past 30 years, the European Union has expanded through absorption and has faced the challenge of integrating new members. The initial situations of the two organizations are fundamentally different. In contrast, BRICS does not interfere in the internal affairs of its member countries and does not seek to change their foreign policies, unlike NATO. 

Danilin believes that the expansion of BRICS is beneficial as it strengthens the positions of the Global South and Russia. The countries that have become members of the organization are supporters of free trade, strengthening sovereignty, and opposing sanctions policies. Therefore, expansion is certainly useful at the current stage.

Analysts agree that US hostility towards BRICS will continue to intensify, especially given Russia's chairmanship. Bordachev suggests that the United States will attempt to impede and cause difficulties for BRICS during the Russian presidency.

Danilin agrees that the United States is already obstructing BRICS interests in the Middle East, particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and attempted to undermine BRICS positions in Argentina. 

Lunev believes that BRICS is a significant competitor to Washington. For over 30 years, the primary foreign policy objective of the United States has been to prevent the emergence of competitors. Previously, their main opponents were Japan and Western Europe. However, with the rise of China and Russia's defiance, organizations that include Moscow and Beijing are becoming the main competitors of the United States,” the speaker emphasized.