Russian food exports feed Asia and Africa

In 2024, for the first time,a large number of African and Asian countries accounted for over 74% of Russia's agricultural exports. Industry analysts see very positive prospects for the development of these markets in the future as their populations grow. While the limited availability of European markets is no longer a major concern for domestic suppliers, the global market situation presents challenges, with low margins and volatile prices affecting earnings on key export positions.

According to the  preliminary results for 2024, agricultural exports from Russia have slightly decreased slightly in value, but increased in physical terms by 9.5% (according to data from the beginning of the year to December 8), analysts from the Federal Center for Development of Agricultural Exports of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia (Agroexport) calculated.
Dmitry Krasnov, the head of Agroexport, attributes this growth to increased demand for meat, dairy, and finished products, which are less susceptible to price fluctuations compared to grains and vegetable oisl.
He also notes that the decline in export revenue is largely due to the significant decrease in the price of wheat and sunflower oil. Agroexport experts predict annual export figures at the level of $44-45 billion by the end of 2024, but for the first nine months it was equal to $31 billion (4% lower than last year's figures for the same period).
Daniil Kozlov, Head of the External Environment Monitoring Department at the Agroanalytics Center, has stated that the geographic structure of agricultural exports from Russia has remained relatively stable in recent years. The key supply destinations for Russian agricultural exports.are the EAEU and SCO member states, as well as BRICS members , Iran, Brazil, China, Egypt, and India plus Turkey now a BRICS partner.
Now before I continue I would like to make an appeal,if you like and enjoy my videos you can help me fund the channel and my websited sco brics insight .com and to further develop it. You can do this by making a small donation which you can do by clicking on the thanks button at the bottom of the video screen. Everybody who donates does get a personal thank you from me.

According to Kozlov, the share of Asia and Africa in Russian agricultural exports increased from 59% to 69% in the period 2021–2023, and in 2024 it will reach 74% in value terms. Russia's share in food imports by African countries currently exceeds 14% in physical terms. In response, Russia plans to expand the number of agricultural attachés in African countries. The main products supplied to these two regions are wheat, barley, corn, chickpeas, sunflower and rapeseed oils, meal, frozen fish and crabs, and chicken meat.
In terms of countries, the emphasis is on the most promising, developing African markets, as Pavel Konev, IT Director of the holding company-exporter "Delivery by Sea", notes. In 2024, Russia increased its wheat supplies to Kenya by 40%, with the country exporting 2 million tons of grain and entering the top five largest buyers of this crop. In turn, Kenya entered the top five buyers of wheat from Russia. Morocco purchased close to 1 million tons of Russian wheat, followed by Nigeria and Tanzania with respective purchases of 1 million tons each.

"Nigeria is the most promising due to its huge and rapidly growing population, profitable ports, and a high proportion of wealthy people," says a representative of JSC "Kirillitsa." The Democratic Republic of the Congo is also of interest, but the logistics of trade there are more complicated.

Trade with China is growing, but not without problems, experts complain. For instance, in 2023, China opened the pea market and, within the first year, purchased over 1 million tons from Russia, as noted by Konev. In response, Russia increased vegetable oil shipments by 2.5 times, reaching 2.45 million tons, including a 3.5-fold surge in sunflower oil to 897,000 tons (displacing India as the primary buyer), and a 2.1-fold increase in rapeseed oil to 1.4 million tons (where China remains the dominant player). "However, in 2024, China significantly reduced the pace of crop exports due to the trade war with the United States, increased food security and a favourable harvest of certain crops within the country," the expert notes. Despite this, China has had some successes in the past year: from January to October 2024, the country imported more than 1 million tons of oats, buckwheat and barley from Russia, which is more than twice the figures for the same period last year. Russia continues to be the sole supplier of buckwheat to China.
"Russia's interaction with India in the sphere of agricultural exports is actively reaching a new level," he continues. "Trade turnover between the countries has grown by more than one and a half times in the first nine months of 2024."Konev agrees that Russian exporters have high hopes for India. According to him, sunflower oil exports to India in 2024 have already doubled last year's figures, reaching a record 1.9 million tons by mid-December, and pea shipments have grown almost sixfold to 647,000 tons.Grain, particularly wheat, remains a key export for Russia, according to the experts interviewed. Analysts from JSC "Kirillitsa" calculated, at the request of Forbes, that today the main volumes of grain sales to domestic farmers are provided by the markets of the Middle East and North Africa (42% of sales go to the Middle East, 22% to North Africa, 20% to Asia, 8% to Africa south of the Sahara, and 8% to others). According to their data, over the past two years, the largest buyers of Russian wheat have been Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh, with purchases ranging from 4 million tons (Turkey) to approximately 1 million tons (Iran). 

Sales volumes for grain and leguminous crops amounted to 71.3 million tons for a total value of $16.123 billion (as of December 8, 2024), while for the same period in 2023, revenue was $15.916 billion with export sales of 62.32 million tons, calculated Stanislav Sankeyev, executive director of the People's Farmer Association. "According to our data, the relevant ministry will expand the export of niche goods, since they provide more revenue per unit of weight," he explains. "We forecast that Russia will maintain its global leadership in the share of wheat on the world market in the 2024/2025 season - over 23% on the world market, or more than 46 million tons, as well as the dominance of wheat in the share of Russia's grain exports - more than 75%,"
 In addition to the low-margin wheat market, other crops such as barley should be given due consideration. The export duty rate for barley is currently zero, a measure implemented to stimulate production. Soybeans, rapeseed and their derivatives are also experiencing strong sales. An expert from Kirillitsa JSC stated that Russia's soybean potential is estimated at an additional 7-8 million tons, with the potential for expansion of crops. China is projected to remain the primary sales market, as it is currently.

By the end of 2024, the production of vegetable oils is expected to exceed 10 million tons, with approximately 7.5 million tons scheduled for export, marking an increase of 830,000 tons compared to the previous year. These figures were calculated by Mikhail Maltsev, the executive director of the Oil and Fat Union of Russia. He anticipates that sunflower oil exports will set a new record, surpassing last year's figures by 1 million tons to reach 5.4 million tons.In addition to the low-margin wheat market, other crops such as barley are poised for growth. The export duty rate for barley is currently zero, a measure implemented to stimulate production.Soybeans, rapeseed, and their derivatives are also experiencing robust sales. An expert from Kirillitsa JSC stated that Russia's soybean potential is estimated at an additional 7-8 million tons, with the potential for expansion of crops.China is projected to remain the primary sales market, as it is currently.

By the close of 2024, the production of vegetable oils is predicted to surpass 10 million tons, with around 7.5 million tons earmarked for export, signifying an increase of 830,000 tons compared to the prior year.These projections were calculated by Mikhail Maltsev, the executive director of the Oil and Fat Union of Russia. He also stated that sunflower oil exports are set to surpass last year's record, reaching a minimum of 5.4 million tons, which is an increase of 1 million tons compared to 2023.
Maltsev notes that key buyers have remained consistent and stable over several years. In terms of export volumes, the ranking is as follows: India, China, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Algeria. "By the end of 2024, India is set to surpass China to become the leading importer of Russian vegetable oils, particularly sunflower oil. This shift will displace China, the top imxporter in 2023, from the top position. Additionally, India is set to overtake Algeria as the leading importer of soybean oil.
According to preliminary estimates by the Oil and Fat Union, vegetable oil exports in 2025 are predicted to reach 7.2 million tons. Record harvests of rapeseed and soybeans this year are expected to drive a 15% increase in oil exports from these products compared to the previous year, according to Maltsev. He notes that Russia currently holds third position among the world's vegetable oil exporters, with an 8% share, trailing the primary suppliers of palm oil – Indonesia and Malaysia. However, Russia is a leader in the total volume of sunflower, rapeseed and soybean oil exports, accounting for 20% of the global market.
Forbes sources indicate that the share of certain agricultural products in the total export volume may undergo significant growth in the coming years, though it remains comparatively modest at present. For instance, according to Agroexport data cited by Forbes, meat supplies experienced a 20% increase in value and a 23% increase in physical terms during 2024. All types of products included in this category (with the exception of lamb) have shown growth: poultry exports have grown by 13% in value terms, pork by 38%, and beef by 12%.The total volume of meat exports from Russia is currently approximately 1 million tons, according to the export company JSC Kirillitsa. 
Agroexport has reported a significant increase in poultry meat supplies, driven by increased exports to Saudi Arabia (+96%) and the UAE (+87%). The opening of the Chinese market at the end of last year has also led to increased pork supplies. As of 8 December, the volume of pork exports, including offal, to China reached 38,000 tons, with a value exceeding $100 million. Beef exports have also grown significantly, driven by the markets of the Persian Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and the UAE.

"At present, the most promising export destinations are Africa and Southeast Asia, as these markets demonstrate a stable demand for meat, due to the growing income level of the population and changing consumer preferences," says Dmitry Alekseev, Commercial Director of Agroeko. He also notes that there is significant interest in selling part of the products with maximum marginality for those items for which there is no great demand in Russia. For example, offal, which is not very popular in Russia, but is in demand in Asian countries.

"And most importantly, in recent years, pork production in Russia has grown significantly, and the sale of part of the product for export has become a necessary condition for maintaining balanced prices and developing the potential of the Russian market," says Alekseev.
According to analysts at Agroexport, dairy exports have shown a 20% growth in value terms when compared to the same period last year. Notable growth was observed in cheese and cottage cheese supplies, which increased by 25%, followed by milk and cream (40%), and powdered milk (32%). Notably, dairy exports to China surged by 60% (reaching $16.3 million), primarily driven by an increase in cheese supplies, along with powdered milk. "It is also worth noting the growth in deliveries of packaged milk and cream and ice cream to China. Notable growth has been observed in the export markets of Algeria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Algeria and Egypt, along with China, ensured positive dynamics in powdered milk exports."