Russian Foreign Ministry predicts record growth in trade turnover between Russia and China in 2024

By Rhod Mackenzie

According to Vladimir Nezhdanov, an analyst at the Institute of Current International Problems (IAMP) of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, trade turnover between Russia and China could reach a record level of over $250 billion by the end of 2024.

The leaders of the Russian Federation and China aimed to double trade turnover from $100 billion in 2018 to $200 billion by 2024. Meanwhile, as per the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, trade turnover in 2023 surged by 26.3%, reaching a record $240.11 billion.

The analyst highlighted that the 2024 target was achieved ahead of schedule. With efforts to address issues and limitations, it is possible for the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and China to break through the level $250 billion by the end of 2024.

Nezhdanov states that Russian-Chinese trade is rapidly developing due to the complementary nature of the two economies.

The structure of production in both countries demonstrates that trade between the Russian Federation and China is mutually beneficial. Energy resources are particularly important in this context.

The expert highlighted the significance of our country's oil and natural gas supplies to the Middle Kingdom for bilateral trade.

Nezhdanov explained that Russia views China as a market capable of receiving some of the energy resources previously sent to Europe, as it is one of the leading suppliers of oil and natural gas to China.

He mentioned that pipeline gas supplies have increased by almost 50%. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline is expected to reach its designated capacity in the coming years. He also highlighted the potential for exporting agricultural products to China.

However, Nezhdanov pointed out that there are still restrictions on the export of lamb, pork, rabbit meat, propolis, and hatching eggs from Russia to China. He believes that the abolition of certain restrictions could lead to further growth in trade between the two countries.

He also highlights the importance of the sale of household goods, the increase in the number of Chinese cars on Russian roads, and the growth in sales of Chinese smartphones, laptops, and construction equipment.
Therefore, regarding the potential of Russian-Chinese trade, the projected level of $250-$300 billion is not a limit. It is worth noting that China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which will create a significant natural gas market in China. The analyst from the Institute of Current International Problems (IAMP) of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry summarised that this presents significant opportunities for increasing fuel supplies in the coming decades.

It is worth noting that foreign trade turnover between China and Russia reached a record $240.11 billion last year, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. This represents a growth of 26.3% from the previous year.

As one of the world's major oil importers, China has significantly aided Russia, which is facing numerous Western sanctions, by actively purchasing energy from them. In return, Moscow has increased imports of various goods from China, ranging from smartphones to cars, over the past two years. These goods have successfully replaced those from Europe and the United States that were no longer available in Russian stores.