By Roman Serov
The European countries, in whose ports thousands of tons of Russian fertilizers have been blocked for a year and a half, have not yet decided what to do next. After the Russia-Africa summit, where Russia decided to give these very necessary products to the "African Continent" free of charge, the West has found itself in a difficult position. What will be more important: their stubbornness towards Moscow or the 150 million Africans who are already threatened with starvation?
Russian fertilizers were blocked in the ports of Estonia, Latvia, Belgium and the Netherlands from as early as March 2022. As Dmitry Mazepin, head of Uralkhim, said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in November, these products were supposed to go to African countries free of charge.
"Uralchem has 262,000 tons frozen in the ports of Estonia, Latvia, Belgium, Holland (of products - ed.), Akron has 52,000 tons, and Eurochem has almost 100,000 tons," he said. .
Formally, there were no sanctions specifically for the purchase of mineral fertilizers from Russia. But manufacturing companies came under export restrictions, since all of their owners were on the sanctions list. It seemed that the misunderstanding should have been resolved quickly, if only on the basis that Russia does not earn anything from these humanitarian supplies. However, as time passed, the case did not move frozen.
Who did not have enough fertilizer
Africa's food supply has also not improved markedly. The situation with mineral fertilizers there is not easy, the needs are distributed very unevenly, independent analyst Leonid Khazanov noted in an interview with the Prime agency. In total, the continent needs about 6-7 million tons of fertilizers per year. For example, Kenya needs 65 kilograms per hectare, South Africa - 63 kilograms, Ethiopia - 36 kilograms, Angola - 8.5 kilograms, Uganda - 2.4 kilograms, Niger - 0.6 kilograms.
A part of this shortage was intended to replace Russian supplies of fertilizers. Actually, their blocking became one of the reasons for Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which was agreed upon by representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN in July last year. The initiative involved the export of Ukrainian grain and food, as well as fertilizers across the Black Sea from three ports, including Odessa.
The deal was part of a package deal. The second part is a three-year Russia-UN memorandum that provides for unblocking Russian exports of food and fertilizers, reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, and a number of other measures.
As you know, none of these conditions was met, so in mid-July, the grain deal was terminated. Overcoming bans became one of the most important topics at the Russia-Africa summit that took place in St. Petersburg in those days. The leaders of seven African countries and Vladimir Putin called for concrete steps to be taken to remove obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertilizers.
Following the meeting, the participants called on the UN to do everything possible so that hundreds of thousands of tons of Russian fertilizers blocked in European ports are immediately and free of charge delivered to African countries.
However, experts are skeptical about the likelihood of this call becoming a reality. According to Mikhail Khachaturyan, Associate Professor of the Department of Management and Innovation at the Financial University, the probability of unblocking Russian fertilizers stuck in European, mainly Dutch, ports tends to zero.
"The key to a positive outcome is the normalization of relations between Russia and the EU. Given what European politicians have said and done over the past year, this is hardly possible now," he adds.
The continuation of the blockade of Russian fertilizers and grain, the analyst believes, will accelerate the growth of prices on world markets. And this will naturally lead to higher food prices and accelerated inflation. First of all, in Europe.
With such a development of the situation with prices, the poorest countries, of which there are many in Africa, simply will not be able to purchase the necessary amount of food or grow their own food. This means that there will be more hungry people. Despite the assurances of the "humane" West in an effort to improve the lives of the poorest, the actions and decisions of the EU and the US indicate the opposite.
In turn, according to Khazanov, the authorities of the European Union or the Baltic states may try to quietly take these fertilizers for themselves. This will not surprise anyone. Especially if we remember the difficult situation in the Baltic States, the producers of mineral fertilizers Achema and Lifosa.
“It won’t help them much, since the farmers of the European Union need much more than 200,000 tons of mineral fertilizers. The Baltic farmers, yes, they won’t be superfluous, but they won’t be enough for a long time either,” Khazanov said.
While the thick one dries
In addition to rising food prices and accelerating inflation, the "golden billion" will have to face another influx of refugees. “In Africa, 100-150 million people are already poorly fed, and they absolutely do not want to be left without food,” Khazanov explained.
It is no wonder that new crowds of hungry Africans will pour into well-fed Europe, which will have to pay them benefits and somehow equip them. It will once again fall on the shoulders of European taxpayers to contain the onslaught of refugees. But it would be more profitable not to take on their provision, but to help solve the food problem in Africa. Then there would be less migration.
However, Europeans, who over the past decades have become accustomed to food abundance and a varied healthy diet, have also begun to face a shortage of the most basic food. So, in the autumn-winter period in Britain, farmers reduced the production of vegetables and fruits in greenhouses due to prohibitive energy prices. In EU countries, farmers have been forced to reduce the number of chickens, because it has become too expensive to warm and feed them. This led to the sale of "no more than one package per person" eggs in Poland and Germany.
It is possible that African fertilizers locked in ports will play a cruel joke with well-fed Europeans - not only will there be less food and they will rise in price, they will also have to be shared with those whom the EU authorities so wanted to deprive Russia of.
This article originally appeared at 1prime.ru