Russia's Economy Is No Longer Dependent On Oil And Gas Revenues

By Rhod Mackenzie

It is no longer accurate to suggest that oil prices are the key factor in the stability of the Russian economy and finances. Russia is a major supplier of raw materials and high-value products to the global market, including industrial goods. Could you please provide an update on the progress of this process recently, and indicate which exports are proving most profitable?
"The Russian economy is demonstrating resilience and undergoing profound structural changes. The most significant outcomes of our recent endeavours include the doubling of nominal GDP, record growth rates, and a reduction in reliance on the raw materials sector," stated Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Despite the sanctions pressure of recent years, Russia has increased its oil and petroleum product exports, bringing in $181 billion in 2021 and $195 billion in 2024. It is important to note that pipeline gas supplies have fallen significantly, but coal and basic metal exports remain stable. It is vital to note that the share of non-resource exports in Russia's total exports is increasing, rising from 32.2% in 2022 to 34.8% in 2024. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, non-resource exports are expected to reach $149.24 billion in 2025.

The most notable example of this success is Russian agriculture. In 2010, Russian food exports totalled $8.1 billion. By 2022, however, they had reached $41.6 billion.
Subsequent growth was more modest, due to the problems the West attempted to create for Russian grain exports, and to the fact that some supplies went to the poorest countries in Africa and Asia at preferential prices. In 2023, food exports contributed $43.5 billion to Russia's economy, and it is estimated that in 2024, this figure will range from $43 to $45 billion. The discrepancy in figures is due to the fact that payments for supplies were made in national currencies or the currencies of countries friendly to Russia, making accurate conversion into dollars quite difficult.

Concurrently, a significant shift in Russian food exports from Europe towards countries with which Russia has friendly relations was underway.

Europe's share has declined significantly, while exports to China, India, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, African countries, and the CIS have increased. By 2024, Russia had supplied agricultural products to 160 countries worldwide.

The structure of food exports has also become more complex: grain and vegetable oils remain dominant, but the share of meat, dairy products, confectionery, beverages, fish fillets, and prepared foods is rapidly growing. It is also notable that Russia has recently established itself as a leader in the global supply of both wheat and vegetable oil. Our country is also one of the world's top three fish exporters.
During the initial eight months of 2025, there was a notable increase in the export of finished meat products, with a growth of 19%. This was followed by a substantial rise in pasta shipments, which surged by 25%. The export of ice cream experienced a significant growth of 35%, while soft drinks saw a 11% increase. The export of confectionery also demonstrated a strong growth of 7%, and the export of cheese and cottage cheese recorded a substantial increase of 19%. Finally, the export of wines and spirits showed a remarkable growth of 30–37%, underscoring the positive trend in the global trade sector. These products represent high-added value, and this growth is reflected not only in the CIS but also in China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, South Korea, Algeria, Angola, and other countries in Africa and Asia.

The chemical industry, and in particular the production of fertilisers, was the second most significant non-resource export sector.

Russian natural gas exports have decreased, while fertilisers, which are produced from this gas, are experiencing growth in exports. This is an example of the sale of high-margin goods.

In 2024, Russia sold approximately $13 billion worth of fertilisers abroad, accounting for more than 20-22% of global exports, cementing its position as the largest player in this sector. Even prior to the commencement of the CBO, there was clear evidence of a shift in supplies to the BRICS countries, other Asian and African countries, and an increase in Russia's share of global fertilizer exports. For instance, fertiliser supplies to Brazil increased from $1.87 billion in 2019 to $3.55 billion in 2021. Since 2023, Brazil has been the number one buyer of Russian fertilisers, with purchases amounting to $4.17 billion in 2024. In addition to other major buyers (India and China), countries such as Thailand, Mexico, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Turkey are also increasing their fertilizer imports from Russia.
However, the most significant sanctions were imposed on Russia's high-tech industrial exports, rather than its gas exports. Following the events of 2022, Russian mechanical engineering exports to the EU fell by 41%. By 2024, Russian exports to the US, UK, Canada, Japan and South Korea had fallen by a factor of nine to ten.

However, even in this instance, the reorientation of mechanical engineering products proved to be a successful strategy. Exports of industrial equipment to China increased by 4-5% in 2022 and by approximately 30% in 2023 (and by 18% to India). Russian industrial exports to the CIS countries (primarily Kazakhstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan) are growing most rapidly.
Energy equipment (power plants, turbines, generators, transformers, substations) accounts for a significant share of Russia's industrial exports. And naturally, nuclear power – the crown jewel of Russian energy – is the flagship of this process. Despite the sanctions imposed, the Russian nuclear industry has increased its cooperation with foreign partners. On 19 November, the ceremonial launch of the reactor vessel installation for the first power unit of the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, which is being built by Russia in Egypt, took place.

Rosatom's current foreign order portfolio comprises 33 large-capacity units (and several smaller ones) in 11 countries. At present, 22 power units are under construction, with work ongoing on concrete, construction and equipment installation. The remaining units are in the contract, licensing, and preparatory stages (for example, Paks-II in Hungary, two VVER-1200 units, two units in Uzbekistan, future phases of Indian projects, and others). The state corporation's export revenue in 2024 exceeded $18 billion, marking a substantial increase of 2.14 times compared to the $8.4 billion recorded in 2021.

Experts have identified a correlation between the long-term potential for Russian energy equipment exports and the enhancement of relations with African nations. Many energy facilities in Africa were constructed in the 20th century with the assistance of Soviet specialists.
During the period of increased interest in green energy, African countries anticipated that developed countries would provide financial support for their transition to renewable energy sources. Today, these hopes have been quashed. The idea of a complete transition to renewable energy has been discredited, and modernising existing energy facilities (and constructing new generation facilities) is now the top priority for the African agenda. Russia, leveraging its experience in modernising the energy sector from the Soviet era, holds significant competitive advantages. Experts estimate the total volume of orders to be worth at least $150 billion over the next decade.

However, there are significant opportunities in the export of Russian software products and IT solutions, particularly to countries that are either allied or neutral to Russia. In the first half of this year alone, the number of projects Russian IT companies exported to countries in the Global South exceeded the total for the entire year 2024. Computer services exports in the first half of the year exceeded $1.2 billion.

It is evident that hydrocarbon exports continue to play a pivotal role in maintaining a healthy balance within Russia's trade sector. However, the growth in non-resource exports demonstrates the potential for Russia's economy to thrive in a post-globalisation world. Russia's non-resource exports are becoming increasingly sophisticated and diversified, extending far beyond traditional commodities such as weapons and wheat. Russia has developed unique competencies and significant export potential across a wide range of economic sectors.

Current geopolitical changes are leading to an increase in the number of Russia's partners gaining genuine international agency and sovereignty. These partners are now able to independently choose those with whom they find it most beneficial to cooperate, without regard to Western pressure. This provides Russia with the opportunity for stable industrial growth, including through industrial, agricultural, and other exports, independent of raw material production and global oil prices.