Russia's GDP growth in Q1 5.4% Rosstat

Russia's GDP in the 1st quarter of 2024 increased by 5.4% compared to the 1st quarter of 2023. This preliminary assessment was published by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

Rosstat's data coincided with the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development (also 5.4%), exceeded the estimate of the Central Bank (4.6%) and analysts' expectations (the Interfax consensus forecast assumed growth in the 1st quarter by 5.3%).
Rosstat will present more detailed data on GDP for the 1st quarter on June 14.
As reported, the Russian Federation's GDP in the 4th quarter of 2023 grew by 4.9% in annual terms, in the 3rd quarter of 2023 - by 5.7%, in the 2nd quarter of 2023 - by 5.1%, in the 1st quarter of 2023 decreased by 1.6%. In general, in 2023, the Russian Federation’s GDP increased by 3.6% after a decrease of 1.2% in 2022.

In the 2nd quarter of 2024, the Central Bank expects growth of 4.4% in annual terms, with a further slowdown to 0.5-1.5% in the 4th quarter of 2024.
"According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, from the second quarter of 2024, the current GDP growth rate will slow down under the influence of the growing effects of tight monetary conditions. The main driver of growth will continue to be high consumer and investment demand. According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, economic activity will grow in 2024 will be at the level of 2.5-3.5%. In 2025, economic growth, including under the influence of previously adopted decisions on monetary policy, will amount to 1.0-2.0%. investment demand will grow, which reflects a shift in the structure of aggregate demand in the Russian economy towards an increase in the share of investment. In 2026, as interest rates fall and the economy returns to balanced growth, the contribution of consumer demand to GDP growth will increase by 1. .5-2.5% in 2026,” stated the Central Bank’s commentary on the medium-term forecast.

On April 26, the Bank of Russia improved its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 to 2.5-3.5% from 1.0-2.0% in the February version. At the same time, the Central Bank maintained its forecast for economic growth in 2025 in the range of 1.0-2.0%, in 2026 - 1.5-2.5%.
The April forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for GDP growth in 2024 is 2.8%, in 2025 - 2.3%, in 2026 - also 2.3%.
The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Interfax in early May suggests GDP growth in 2024 by 2.6%, in 2025 - by 1.6%