Russia's pivot to the East contributes to its stability

By Yuri Mavashev

In 2023, the year for the East and Asia as a whole was not only busy but also oversaturated. The same can be said about Russian politics, or more precisely, about the new opportunities for Moscow in the region. In Mackinder's words, the battle between the 'civilization of the land' and the 'civilization of the sea' received new impetus.

Several important trends have emerged for the emergence of a new, Eastern-centric world - to the detriment of the Western-centric one. The latter suffered a powerful blow. It transpired that the centre of the world is not located in Europe or the West. The attacks by the Yemeni Houthis, from the Ansar Allah movement, on the tanker and container fleets of European companies served as a reminder of this fact at the end of 2023. Despite being vastly outnumbered by the Western coalition, a small group of motivated individuals forced European ships to circumnavigate Africa to deliver the winter fuel they require. It is worth noting that the Houthis refrained from targeting the Russian cargo fleet.

It is possible that Russia's close cooperation with Iran is the reason for the Houthis' support with money and weapons. In late 2023, the EAEU and Iran signed a duty-free trade agreement that will reduce duties on 90% of all commodity items and over 99% of supplies to Iran from EAEU countries. This deal is unprecedented in Iran's history.
However, there is a more significant dimension to consider. Regardless of who is responsible for the troubles in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, they perceive a significant difference between Russia Western countries. Therefore, the creation of a new model that is not centred on the West is no longer just a matter of words and good intentions. This trend has a solid political and economic basis, which was established by earlier events in the East in 2023.

The main event of spring 2023 is the establishment of diplomatic ties between two historical rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, who respectively represent the centres of the Sunni and Shiite worlds. This development has significant implications for the US and the West in the Middle East. The meeting between Saudi and Iranian officials could lead to the formation of new alliances and trade routes beyond Tehran and Riyadh. It is important to consider one's neighbours who synchronize their watches with an eastern capital.

However, the biggest concern for the West, which is accustomed to dividing and conquering, is not even this. The two regional poles have managed to make peace with the help of China, resulting in the formation of a new triangle. Therefore, the responsibility now lies with Beijing. Given the success of a Chinese initiative in the Middle East, it is likely that Islamic countries may turn to China rather than the United States as an arbitrator in the future. Centripetal trends are evident in the Middle East.
The statement can be supported by additional evidence. In June 2023, the UAE declared its intention to withdraw from the United Maritime Forces, which included 24 countries and was under the auspices of the United States. The coalition's objective was to maintain security in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. The official statement accompanying Abu Dhabi's departure from the coalition stated that the UAE would seek alternative means to ensure regional security.

    In early summer 2023, the UAE and Qatar restored diplomatic relations following the end of the boycott by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt. Previously, Washington had exploited these contradictions to its advantage.

Countries in the region have also begun to arm themselves and cooperate with each other in military-technical terms. For the first time, Turkey has entered into an agreement with Saudi Arabia to supply Bayraktar drones. This is significant as Turkey rarely sells its aircraft, even to long-standing partners. The agreement demonstrates a shared understanding of common goals and objectives among regional powers, overcoming past obstacles.

In 2023, the United States took action in response to unfavorable trends in the East. President Biden met with Saudi Crown Prince Salman Al Saud, despite the latter's unfriendly reception. However, these visits did not yield any results. Moreover, they cannot be compared to the results of President Vladimir Putin's visit to Riyadh, during which our countries agreed to cooperate in ten areas, including energy, the judicial system, and tourism.
The second attempt by the Americans to win over the freedom-loving East was more noteworthy. In June, Biden met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington. The White House's warm reception was accompanied by promises to provide Delhi with technology and, in principle, armaments. To demonstrate the seriousness of his intentions, Elon Musk was brought to the meeting. According to the businessman, Tesla intends to invest in the country. This public display of affection towards the Indian government is not self-serving. The United States views this country as a tool to counter Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, in addition to its alliances with Australia and the United Kingdom through AUCUS.
However, the key issue, as is now evident, was Biden's commitment to Modi that India would participate in the American initiative to establish the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor. Progress seemed to be on track until Hamas withdrew Israel from the project. Without Israeli ports, the American corridor loses all significance with India's involvement. There are no alternative means of transporting goods to the European market. It may be possible to reach an agreement with Turkey, given the country's developed transport and logistics infrastructure. However, negotiating with President Erdogan has proven difficult for the United States.

Another significant event in the East in 2023 was the resolution of the Karabakh crisis by Azerbaijan. Russia was able to benefit from this process. Ultimately, Russia, along with Azerbaijan and Turkey, is interested in unblocking transport communications. It is nearly impossible to achieve this without ending the war and concluding a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku. The fact that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan participated in the meeting of the Supreme Council of the EEC and the informal summit of the heads of state of the CIS at the end of 2023 was also a moral victory for the Kremlin.

At the end of 2023, two alliances were formally formed, each with the participation of eastern players. One is represented by participants in the Russian-allied project 'Silk Road - 2', and the other by participants in the route 'India - Middle East - Europe'. The first alliance appears to be more robust and well-formed than the second. It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia and the UAE suspended their contacts with Israel amid the aggravation in the Gaza Strip.

Therefore, in 2023, Russia achieved a favourable outcome in its foreign policy towards the East. Its role and reputation in the region remain unchallenged.