Russia’s unique geography gives it a huge opportunity to embrace Asia

By Timofey Bordachev

The capital of the Russian Far East, Vladivostok, is currently hosting the annual Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) - a major public event and showcase for the country's pivot to the East.

This ambitious policy was adopted by Moscow just over a decade ago, when President Vladimir Putin declared the development of the Far East and its integration into the global market a national priority for the 21st century. Since 2015, the Forum has brought together Russian and foreign leaders in politics, business, science, education and civil society.

On several occasions, it has been attended by the leaders of major Asian states - Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the patriarch of regional politics, Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia. In other words, both Russia and its key regional partners have demonstrated the seriousness of Moscow's plans to integrate its economy into Asia's vast and diverse political-economic system.

It should be said that, in general, developing relations with Asian countries has never been a priority for Russia, despite its strong presence in the region. There were several reasons for this, each of which was serious enough to relegate the Eastern orientation to second or third place in the list of national foreign policy priorities.
First of all, once Moscow had solved its most important task five hundred years ago - ridding the east of the threat of the steppe nomads - there was no perceived security threat from that direction. Russian power rolled eastwards with relative ease, gradually occupying new territories beyond the Urals with waves of settlement and administration.

Here it almost never encountered obstacles or adversaries that could threaten its existence. Even the most serious blow to our imperial ego from this frontier, the clash with Japan at the beginning of the last century, was for Russia nothing more than a colonial conflict that could not threaten the territorial integrity of the state. The only period when the threat from Asia was tangible was the middle decades of the 20th century. Initially, the challenge came from Tokyo, which during its imperial heyday had threatened and on several occasions even controlled Russian possessions in the Far East.

This threat disappeared with the defeat of Japan in the Second World War. The USSR's participation in that success completely solved the problem, and now its return is even less than hypothetical. In any case, the danger may not come from Japan, but rather from the United States, which now controls it. Russia shares a border with this country, but the remoteness of Alaska from the main territory of the USA does not pose any major security problems.
Second, in the economic sphere, Russia has always been closely linked to the rest of Europe and the West in general. In this direction, geography itself has favoured cooperation and trade to such an extent that even the consistent hostility of Western Europeans themselves towards the Russians has not been able to reverse it. Russia and other European countries went to war several times, and from the West came forces that set out to destroy the Russian state. But even these well-known tragic events - most notably the invasions of Adolf Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte - were not enough to deter the country from economic, technological and cultural partnership with the rest of the continent. In this sense, Western Europe is the opposite of Asia in Russia's system of foreign relations. It has always been a threat, but it was easy to rebuild close relations once the bloody wars were over.

Finally, Russia's Asian-facing regions have never themselves been sufficiently populous or important in the country's economic system. For climatic and topographical reasons, the eastern edge of Russia has always been like the tip of a blade, tapering and losing its special connection with the handle in the central regions of the European part of the country. A narrow strip of land, suitable for the settlement of significant masses of the population, runs along the Trans-Siberian railway and ends in one large city - Vladivostok. In contrast, in the US, for example, the favourable climate of the west coast allows several large urban centres to 'cling' to the shores of the Pacific Ocean.

All these factors have made the Russian state's focus on the East secondary. And only extraordinary political will and the most fundamental changes in Moscow's position in world affairs can reverse such objective contraindications.
The development of relations with Asia is complicated by the fact that Russia is severely cut off geographically from most of the continent. It is separated to the south by the vast Islamic belt of Central Asia and Afghanistan, to the south-east by the vast expanse of China, and to the north-east by traditionally hostile Japan. Developing links between Russia and the rest of Asia therefore requires the creation of special logistical routes.

Asia itself has not been a significant part of the international system until the last forty to fifty years. Most of the states there were solving basic development problems and focused on integration into the liberal world order led by the United States. Washington, as a vigilant hegemon, never promoted horizontal relations between the countries whose relations were important to it. Russia was assigned the role of another petrol station in the world order, but only to serve Western consumers.
The past year and a half has been a period that may indeed prove to be a turning point in Russia-Asia relations. First and foremost, strengthening ties with regional powers and their economies has become a necessity rather than a choice for Moscow itself. The West's desire to defeat Russia economically and militarily has led to the rapid severing of many ties with other European states, the curtailment of investment and a serious slowdown in international trade.

Under these conditions, Russia urgently needs to develop relations with Asia, where only one major state - Japan - occupies a position similar to that of the US and its NATO allies. In 2022-2023, the volume of trade and economic relations between Russia and Asian countries will increase significantly, and Vladivostok will become one of the main "gateways" for Russian goods to world markets. And in the face of growing global turbulence, Asian countries themselves are interested in actively trading with Russia and gradually moving to settlements in local currencies. Asia remains a complex region and a rarely considered source of partners for Moscow. But now, for the first time in Russia's history, objective conditions have emerged to shift our focus there.

Timofey Bordachev is the Valdai Club Programme Director