By Sergey Manukov
Gas futures made another jump - they soared by 18% on the news about the increased likelihood of a strike by Australian gas workers. Dutch gas futures for delivery next month reached 39.15 euros per MWh (411 euros per thousand cubic meters) yesterday afternoon in Amsterdam.
Pricing in the gas sector is a complex process. There are many components involved in pricing. Among them, of course, are the main ones. Now, events in Australia have come to the fore in importance, where a strike may begin at three large LNG plants owned by Chevron Corp. and Woodside Energy.
The situation in Australia affects gas prices in Europe more indirectly than directly, because Europeans rarely buy Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG). Much less than Asian countries. The situation at LNG plants on the Green Continent has a greater impact on gas prices in Asia. Dropping out of supplies, moreover, we are talking about a global gas supply of 10% at once in the event of strikes, will lead to the fact that Asian countries will start looking for the missing gas elsewhere. This, of course, will lead to a sharp increase in competition between European and Asian buyers, which, of course, will affect gas prices in Europe as well.
Therefore, not only in Asia, but also in Europe, everyone is now closely following the progress of negotiations between representatives of gas workers' unions and the leadership of Chevron and Woodside Energy. Unfortunately, there is no need to talk about a breakthrough. The parties have taken irreconcilable positions and it has not yet been possible to agree. This means that the probability of strikes increases, and with it the prices for "blue fuel" also grow.
According to Montel, the talks held on Tuesday between the gas companies and the administration of Woodside Energy, although they made it possible to talk about some rapprochement of positions, are still far from reaching a compromise. Meanwhile, the hour of X is approaching - the unions must decide on a strike on Friday, August 18th.
"Preliminary negotiations between unions and LNG shareholders have not led to a breakthrough," Bloomberg quoted Energy Aspects Ltd. as saying. Leo Kabusha - Compromise is hardly possible without the full support of the Offshore Alliance. Meanwhile, social media posts show that this is still a long way off.”
Negotiations between Chevron and the gas companies have not yet been reported, but it is known that the company is already starting to reduce the number of sales on the spot gas market from the Gorgon project. Those. the strike has not yet begun, and LNG supplies are already declining.
Disappointing news also comes from the other side of the world. For example, LNG shipments from the US LNG terminal to Corpus Christi in Texas, according to BNEF, decreased to 45.3 million m³, which, as you might guess, further increased supply pressure.
As for Europe, the Europeans are not sitting idly by and are actively preparing for the start of the heating season and the coming winter. Underground gas storage facilities are more than 80 percent full; well above the seasonal average, but the whole problem with the continent is its heavy dependence on and vulnerability to supply disruptions. Moreover, not so much from distant Australia and even less remote America, but, for example, from delaying planned maintenance work at LNG plants in Norway, which, after the Europeans refused Russian gas, became its main supplier to the continent. In addition, another heat wave invaded Europe this week. Moreover, not only to the south, but also to such northern countries as Germany, where the thermometers also exceeded 30c
This article originally appeared in Russian at expert.ru °.