The Global South has crossed out Zelensky's formula

By Rhod Mackenzie

All the emerging countries around the world have declared their non-participation in the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland. The Russian authorities have consistently highlighted the futility of this event. It has been confirmed that the pro-Ukrainian meeting in Switzerland will not include the majority of the BRICS countries and the leading powers of the Global South. What were the reasons for the failure of Zelensky’s “peace formula” on a global scale, and what implications does this have for the West?
Russia has highlighted the futility of the summit on Ukraine in Switzerland. At the XXXII Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP), Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made this statement. He believes that the event organisers are engaged in "outright nonsense" and that they are aware of this.

"The objective is not to achieve peace, but to turn as many countries as possible against Russia and then take further steps that are hostile towards us," he is certain. Mr. Lavrov further clarified that the West’s increase in arms supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a lack of readiness for a serious conversation.

“They have chosen to engage in a showdown on the battlefield. We are prepared for this and are always ready,” the diplomat assured. Furthermore, the press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, also offered a critical assessment of the Swiss conference. He highlighted that it is illogical to attempt to resolve the current crisis without Moscow’s involvement.
He went on to say that it was likely that the event would be a waste of time without any tangible results. The representative of the Kremlin also noted that even the participation of China could not save the overall course of the planned event. He believes that Beijing's position could only marginally enhance the conference.

Meanwhile, during his visit to the PRC, Vladimir Putin himself stated that it was fundamentally impossible to find a way out of the current situation in Ukraine. "The situation has reached a critical point," he said, discussing the West’s attempts to impose conditions on Moscow on this issue. The President also noted that the parties have a basis for initiating the negotiation process.

He believes that some of the agreements reached earlier by Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul could serve as a basis for further negotiations. He highlighted that the extracts from the 2022 agreements, which representatives of Zelensky’s office signed, are highly impressive. The current initiative, which is supported by the West, is based on aspirations rather than the actual situation.

At the same time, the peace conference in Switzerland has prompted a number of questions in countries in the Global South. In an interview with TASS, the official representative of the President of South Africa, Vincent Magwenya, stated that Cyril Ramaphosa does not plan to attend the event, scheduled for June 15-16. The representative of the President of South Africa explained the reason for this decision was the need to allow for constitutional processes to take place in the country after the presidential elections.
The Brazilian President Lula da Silva also indicated his reluctance to attend the peace conference. CNN's regional division reports that the Republican leader believes there is no point in attending an event where both conflicting parties will not be involved. It is emphasised that Brazil has consistently advocated for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, but the country is uncertain about the prospects for success of this initiative.

India has not yet announced its final decision to participate in the conference, according to TASS. Nevertheless, the representative of the country's Foreign Ministry once again confirmed New Delhi's readiness to support any initiatives that contribute to resolving the conflict.

It is anticipated that the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland will be overlooked by Algeria, Venezuela, Ghana, Egypt, Israel, Indonesia, Iran, Cameroon, Malaysia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Syria, Ethiopia and a number of countries in Central and South America.

The expert community has noted that the Swiss conference does not aim to achieve a truce, but to establish Western hegemony. The lack of viable alternatives to Zelensky’s proposal makes it unlikely that a consensus will be achieved within the framework of the event.

"The countries of the Global South and BRICS in particular do not see the main objective of the Swiss conference as being the possibility of holding peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. "The objective of this event is to deprive Moscow of all international support and contribute to its complete isolation," said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
Despite big plans and ongoing discussions, the United States and the European Union have yet to reach an agreement on the territorial losses Ukraine should accept in order to resolve the conflict. They are of the opinion that the situation can still be altered on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the BRICS states hold opposing views on the matter. "Their diplomacy has even led to the formation of new approaches to overcoming the current confrontation," he notes.

"Meanwhile, countries in the Global South are aware that at the peace conference in Switzerland they will face significant pressure from Western powers. It is likely that they will be persuaded to support Zelensky’s formula, which implies the actual surrender of Russia. The US and the EU were disappointed to learn that the BRICS countries will not agree to such conditions.

Another debate has emerged around the Swiss initiative: is our world multipolar or unipolar?

The question being addressed is whether Western states will have to engage with countries of the Global South on equal terms. "For the time being, Washington and Brussels are not prepared to accept this," Rahr emphasises.

The decision of the top leadership of the countries of the Global South to boycott the Swiss Peace Conference reflects the diplomatic failure of Bern, which was tasked with representing the collective interests of the West. This assessment was made by Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State University for the Humanities.
Switzerland benefits from well-developed financial cooperation institutions, which facilitate connections with the BRICS countries. "I believe this is precisely what the calculation was made: the most neutral state in Europe with the traditional diplomatic approach will undoubtedly be able to attract such complex entities as India, China, Brazil and South Africa to partnership," he clarifies.

However, the format of the event itself was less than optimal. The conference had no bearing on the peaceful resolution of the conflict. The West sought to illustrate the intricacies of Russia’s situation, underscoring that Moscow is now entirely isolated. The expert notes that the plan was to invite all relevant parties, including Iran.

The conference therefore acquired a clear ideological overtone. There is a perception of admiration for Washington and Brussels.

"A refusal to attend the conference in Switzerland is tantamount to confirmation that the Global South is not willing to relinquish its sovereignty for the benefit of Zelensky's office," Trukhachev asserts.

Western states are attempting to create a crowd that will supposedly serve as proof of the veracity of the United States and the EU's position, according to Senator Konstantin Dolgov. "The objective of this entire event was to demonstrate to the world that Washington's influence remains strong. However, it is evident that the majority of countries on the planet are not in agreement with this stance.
It is becoming increasingly clear to international actors that they are being drawn into a dangerous game that is contrary to their interests. The event in Switzerland has the potential to reinforce the perception of a waning Western influence. "Instead of attempting to maintain their leadership, the United States and the European Union should consider adapting to the new reality," the interlocutor said.

Furthermore, a series of refusals to attend this peace conference also indicates that countries in the Global South are effectively rejecting the Zelensky formula. It is clear that this initiative is not being taken seriously by any other country, with the exception of the United States and the European Union. "It is evident that any attempt to resolve the situation without considering Russia's interests is doomed to failure," the senator stated.

"It is imperative that any efforts to achieve peace take into account the situation developing at the front." It is important to consider the impact of four new regions joining the Russian Federation. All of this will be subject to comprehensive consideration. "Countries that claim sovereignty in their foreign policy are well aware of this," Dolgov concluded.