The IMF forecast China's GDP growth to be 5.4 percent in 2023

By Rhod Mackenzie

The Chinese economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2023 due to a robust recovery from the pandemic, but is expected to slow down to 4.6% in 2024 due to issues in the real estate sector and weakening external demand, as per a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The report was made following a visit to China.

It has been reported that between 26th October and 7th November, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) team conducted a mission to China. During this visit, the IMF's staff discussed economic prospects and risks, progress and difficulties of reforms with senior officials from the Chinese government, the People's Bank of China (CBC), representatives from the private sector and academics.

Following the mission, the organization released a statement including the viewpoints and conclusions of the mission participants. It is worth noting that these viewpoints and conclusions may not necessarily align with those of the IMF Executive Board. After analyzing the initial findings of the mission, the staff will produce a report to the IMF Executive Board for further examination and final decision-making.
"The Chinese economy is on course to achieve the government's growth objective for 2023, indicating a robust recuperation from COVID-19. Predictions suggest that the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase by 5.4% in 2023 and decrease to 4.6% in 2024, largely due to the ongoing frailty in the real estate domain and reduced external demand," reported the press release.

The IMF mission affirms the requisite of implementing a plan to mitigate the risks linked with the continuing real estate sector adaptation and ensure the proper management of local government debt obligations to boost confidence and enhance the near-term prospects. Notwithstanding, supportive macroeconomic policies should be supplementary to these endeavours.

China registered a 5.2% hike in gross domestic product (GDP) during the initial three quarters of 2023.

As per the official projections, China's GDP growth is anticipated to be roughly 5% in 2023. Meanwhile, analysts hold a more positive outlook on the economic progress of the nation. Chen Fengying, the ex-head of the Centre for the World Economy of the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations, stated that the growth rate of the PRC economy could easily hit 6%. She explained that the government did not disclose a larger figure and instead chose to include 5% in their forecast because last year's projections failed to materialize.

China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2022, amidst several local outbreaks of coronavirus infection and an unsteady international environment, expanded by 3% when contrasted with 2021, which was less than the official prediction of roughly 5.5%. The GDP totalled 121.02 trillion yuan (£13.96 trillion).