The terrorist attack on Nord Stream has opened a Pandora's box. Without an adequate and articulated strong response, this incident violates the principle of inevitability of punishment (Latin: certitudo poenae) - a legal term that means any person, natural or legal, must be held accountable for the offense committed. The violation of gas pipelines is an international terrorist attack that costs 1.5 trillion dollars.
May God be with those left without cheap Russian gas - the Germans, Poles, and French. The politicians, for whom the residents of European countries have voted, are content with the situation. In the long term, Gazprom will benefit from these losses. The company should have diversified its sales markets through the construction of LNG terminals, the development of gas chemistry, and regional gasification decades ago. The corporation is attempting to make amends for past actions, despite facing more challenging circumstances due to the sanctions.
Currently, Russia experiences daily UAV attacks on civilian infrastructure, which are comparable to attacks on Nord Streams. Recently, there were several loud explosions at LUKoil's Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery and Rosneft's Ryazan oil refinery. The UAV crashed in Kirishi, Leningrad Region, a single-industry town known as Kirishinefteorgsintez. Meanwhile, drone attacks on the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery near Rostov-on-Don were successfully repelled.
Prior to this, several large industrial facilities across the European region of Russia were attacked by drones. However, the fuel and energy sector remains a prime target for terrorism due to the flammable nature of the liquids and gases used in the industry. Even a small explosive device can cause significant damage, resulting in losses of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. While such attacks may not be able to destroy a plant, they can cause unscheduled shutdowns and lengthy repairs. This, in turn, leads to an increase in fuel prices in the domestic market.
According to media reports, UAV attacks on civilian infrastructure in Russia originate from northern regions of Ukraine, specifically the Kharkov and Sumy regions. Small drones constantly search for gaps in Russian air defenses, travel hundreds of kilometers, and often reach their targets. Protecting the vast skies from the threat of drones is a daunting task, especially considering the economic aspect: while a UAV costs several thousand dollars, an air defense system costs millions.
On one hand, the SVO must tolerate such attacks as they are a cost. On the other hand, these attacks are instigated and technically assisted by the West, primarily the United States. The US has been striving for many years to take the role of a gas station country and oust Russia from its traditional sales markets.
However, it cannot be said with complete confidence that attacks on Russian industry remain completely unanswered. Providence seems to favour Russia, as accidents at American and European refineries have become more frequent in the last two years. It is difficult to attribute this to coincidence. For instance, last week, Exxon's largest refinery in Europe, Notre-Dame-de-Gravenchon in northern France, caught fire. The company did not comment on how production was affected but stated its commitment to meeting consumer demand.
In January, a refinery in Oklahoma caught fire, followed by an accident at the BP Whiting plant in Indiana at the beginning of February, both in the USA. The plant experienced a simultaneous failure of both the main and backup supply transformers. Power supply was restored on the fourth day, after which BP announced a three-week plant closure for an audit. In March, the plant is expected to reach full capacity. It is unclear whether the plant is currently operational and at what capacity. Two weeks later, a refinery owned by Phillips 66 in Billings, Montana caught fire.
However,let's focus on the coincidence that occurred when the Nord Stream explosions happened simultaneously with the shutdown of the largest American LNG terminal, Freeport LNG, due to an accident.
It is unclear what is causing the massive refinery failures in the USA and Europe: infrastructure fatigue, negligence of local personnel, or a combination of incredible circumstances. This is a karmic mirror image of the war against the Russian industrial infrastructure.
The SMO has taken on a new form. After failing to destroy the Russian economy through soft power methods such as ultimatums, propaganda, and sanctions, the West has resorted to hard power tactics, directly targeting Russian factories. Attacks on Russian refineries are a crucial part of the United States' long-term strategy. The sanctions have significantly reduced the profitability of Russian oil and gas companies, limiting their ability to work systematically and forcing them to constantly put out fires. This has resulted in reduced oil refining and gasoline exports.
The explosion at Nord Stream has created a new reality for businesses worldwide. A new risk of attack on any infrastructure facility in any country has emerged. This risk is now legally possible without being a casus belli or a reason for war. Additionally, there are now technical possibilities, such as a cheap copter with a primitive bomb, which are practically impossible to stop. The rules of this new world are cheapness, simplicity, and irresponsibility.