By Boris Solovyov
The Russian currency continues to fall in price, and today the market continued to harbor fears that this week it may well reach the level of 100 rubles. per dollar. At first, the ruble reacted weakly to the Central Bank's decision not to buy foreign currency as part of the budget rule, which was intended to strengthen it. However, the very end of the day brought a note of optimism.
Hope for the end of the month - or for the results of the end of the day?
In recent days, the investment community has been discussing two interrelated questions: how long the ruble will fall and why the Bank of Russia is not taking any measures to at least stabilize the Russian currency.
At the beginning of the week, there was an opinion on the market that the regulator would not allow the exchange rate to exceed the mark of 100 rubles. per dollar. This is unfavorable for the fight against inflation declared as a priority. And that means for the standard of living. Moreover, the deep weakening of the national currency, which began to develop the practice of exporting Russian goods for rubles, does not promise good prospects.
In the arsenal of the Central Bank there are several effective measures to curb the growth of the dollar. This is, first of all, the introduction of a requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, as well as a strong tightening of the withdrawal of capital abroad, including in relation to Western businesses selling Russian assets. In principle, this also includes a sharp emergency increase in the key rate,
But until today, the Central Bank has kept complete silence, not trying to support the ruble even with verbal interventions.
The main fundamental reasons for the weakness of the domestic currency have already been named many times, and so far they continue to operate. This is a sharp increase in imports, which this year may go to pre-coronavirus levels, and a decrease in the inflow of export earnings due to a drop in sales of Russian products on the foreign market.
“An additional factor that largely determines the demand for foreign currency remains operations related to the exit of non-residents from assets in the Russian Federation, as well as the withdrawal of funds by Russian persons abroad, due to great geopolitical and economic uncertainty,” adds an analystr on the stock market "BCS World of Investments" Dmitry Babin.
So there is nothing surprising that in such conditions the ruble continues to fall in price. Today, at the moment, the rate of the Russian currency went above 98 rubles per dollar.
True, in the last hours of trading the rate returned to the level of yesterday's close, reacting to the decision of the Bank of Russia not to buy foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule until the end of the year.
But some traders in an interview with "Expert" said that this measure is absolutely not enough, and its effect will be very short-lived.
They substantiated their point of view by the fact that at the beginning of the month the Bank of Russia sold more than twice the volume of foreign currency: 1.7 billion rubles. under the budget rule and 2.3 billion rubles - as part of the "mirroring" operation of the use of funds from the NWF. Since August 7, the Central Bank has been buying currencies for 1.8 billion rubles. per day according to the budget rule.
During this time, the ruble has strengthened only once, and even then by 40 kopecks.
“Significant changes in the dynamics of the ruble should not be expected yet. Fundamentally, the situation for the national currency has not changed. However, as the end of the month approaches, the pace of the ruble's decline will slow down as Russian exporters prepare to pay off their tax liabilities,” believes Evgeny Linchik, head of the alternative investment department at Pervaya Management Company.
Exporters usually increase the sale of foreign exchange earnings to prepare for the payment of taxes on the 20th of the month.
Thus, if the Russian currency does not receive significant support before this date, it may well continue to decline, and reach 100 rubles by the end of this week. per dollar. If the exchange rate is fixed above this level, a sharp further weakening of the ruble can be expected. For many currency players who bet on the growth of the ruble, loss-limiting stop orders will work. Yes, and in the minds of the population may work such "stop signals" in relation to the ruble.
But it is possible that the market will evaluate the decision announced today by the Central Bank more positively than it looked during most of the second half of the trading day. By the end of his ruble still "wiped away the tears" and then it was "tears of happiness." He almost won back daily losses against the dollar, as well as against the euro and the Chinese yuan.
True, according to some estimates, not only the news from the Central Bank helped to help the ruble grow, but also the appearance on the market of a certain large yuan seller. One way or another, at 19:00 the US dollar exchange rate was 97.2 rubles, having added only 10 kopecks to the level of closing the previous trades.
Stocks are growing, but somehow without a spark
At the same time, the weakness of the ruble continues to support the stock market. The cheaper the national currency is, the more rubles exporters can earn for the same ton (piece) of products sold.
But the situation has changed radically in the stock market in recent days - if earlier traders were actively buying shares, mainly exporters, now the devaluation only does not allow the Moscow Exchange Index to go into a correction.
It seems that investors are moving to the point of view that the economy cannot be all right if the national currency has moved down by about 30% in 7 months, and collapsed by almost 80% in 12 months.
The Blue Chips closed mixed today. Better than the market looked metallurgists, for which the depreciation of the ruble is considered the most favorable, as well as oil stocks, winning back more than a percentage rise in oil prices.
Analysts recommend paying increased attention to Rosneft shares in the coming hours. Not only is this stock one of the most fundamentally strong on the Russian market, but it is also now storming the upper limit of the resistance zone of 525-530 rubles. Fixing paper above 530 rubles. can provoke a sharp acceleration of its growth due to the closing of short positions by speculators.
In general, most experts expect a neutral dynamics of the Moscow Exchange Index in the coming days or even a slight correction if there are reasons for this.
This article originally appeared in Russian at expert.ru