The West wants to stop Russian imports from UAE

By Ksenia Loginova

Western countries are increasing pressuring Abu Dhabi to stop exports to Russia of dual-use goods that they say are helping Moscow in the Ukrainian conflict. First of all, we are talking about microchips and other electronic components. The United States and allies have repeatedly tried to put pressure on the Emirates. However, despite everything, the political and economic interaction of the UAE with Russia is only gaining momentum. Details are in the Izvestia article.

Press harder
“Officials from the US, Britain and the EU plan to jointly pressure the UAE this week to stop supplying goods to Russia,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing US and European politicians. As the publication notes, these products could allegedly help Moscow in the conflict in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the week, officials from Washington and European capitals have made a series of visits to the Emirates. It was not reported which departments they represented, but it is known that the dialogue took place around the supply of Western goods to Russia through the UAE. In particular, Washington, Brussels and London want to convince Abu Dhabi not to supply Moscow with computer chips, electronic components and other dual-use goods that, in addition to the civilian sphere, can also be used in the military.

The publication quotes one of the unnamed Arab officials as saying that the country is complying with UN sanctions and is in close dialogue with international partners, including the EU and the US. Topics discussed include the Ukrainian conflict and its implications for the global economy.

What will the cooling of relations between countries lead to?
The source also added that Abu Dhabi is “committed to protecting the integrity of the global financial system” and monitors the export of dual-use goods.

The UAE did not join the anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the country has repeatedly stated that it does not want to be a “transshipment point through which Western companies circumvent these restrictions.”

Recently, the Emirates have become the main center for trading Russian gold, despite Western sanctions prohibiting the purchase of precious metals from the Russian Federation. In 2022, according to Russian customs data, Moscow imported 75 tons of gold into the country worth $4.3 billion. The year before, imports were much more modest - only 1.3 tons.

Both with Russia and with the West
The United States and its allies have repeatedly tried to influence the UAE and raised the issue that Emirati businessmen do not comply with anti-Russian and anti-Iranian sanctions. Restrictive measures were even introduced against some companies, but cooperation with Moscow and Tehran continued.

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According to WSJ, since the beginning of this year, Abu Dhabi has exported $149 million worth of computer components to Moscow, while last year exports amounted to only $1 million. Also in 2023, supplies of communications equipment increased significantly. However, it is not specified which goods are subject to Western sanctions. Trade turnover increased by 68%, and Abu Dhabi became Moscow's leading trading partner among the Arab states.

It should be noted that from January 1, 2024, the UAE, together with Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia, will join BRICS and continue to develop cooperation.

In addition, Russian traders who are engaged in oil trading have moved to the Emirates.

Abu Dhabi continues to actively cooperate with both the West and Russia. On the one hand, the UAE at the UN voted for resolutions in support of Kyiv, on the other hand, the country continues to interact with Moscow both in the economic, trade, and political spheres.

Tempting offers
Relations between Russia and the UAE, despite Western attempts to exert pressure, remain positive. Russian-Emirati trade turnover continues to grow, which indicates the stability of cooperation , Alexander Shneiderman, head of the sales and customer support department at Alfa-Forex, said in a conversation with Izvestia.

“Indeed, the United States and its allies can put pressure on the Emirates, but this is unlikely to seriously stop the flow of dual-use goods to Russia,” the expert explained.

According to him, the current mechanism for supplying dual-use goods to Russia involves the use of a third country as an intermediary.

— This third state can purchase goods and services as for itself, and then resell them to Russia. This method of circumventing restrictions will support the sustainability of economic cooperation between countries, the expert is confident.

A private investor, founder of the School of Practical Investment, Fedor Sidorov, in a conversation with Izvestia, noted that, according to some data, the UAE has exported computer components and modules worth $149 million to Russia since the beginning of the year. In addition, exports of communication equipment increased to $64 million , electrical and electronic equipment - up to $20 million.

— The basis of this scheme, it seems to me, lies in the fact that the products supplied to Russia from the Emirates are de jure civilian. And it is quite difficult to establish for certain which part of it is subject to Western sanctions. The West understands this and therefore offers the Emirates a compromise,” the specialist notes.

According to him, companies are registered in the UAE that purchased more than $17 billion worth of Russian oil in the first quarter of 2023 alone. This is approximately a third of the total volume of Russian exports for that period.

— It is absolutely clear that in the context of reduction in oil production by OPEC countries, the UAE will continue to resell Russian raw materials. The United States made it clear privately that it may not block trade in Russian oil for the UAE if it stops supplying dual-use goods to Russia, the expert explained.

The analyst also added that Washington promises to turn a blind eye to purchases of sanctioned Russian gold.

• This is a very tempting offer. Bilateral trade turnover over the past year has grown to $9 billion, and the flow of tourists and the size of the Russian diaspora in the UAE are also growing. And this, in turn, means an influx of capital and the development of the real estate market . So, partnership with Russia so far looks more profitable for the UAE than dubious cooperation with the West,” Sidorov concluded.

Moscow and Beijing are being closely watched
According to orientalist and publicist Andrei Ontikov, it is unknown what exactly US representatives are now saying to their colleagues from the UAE.

— It can be assumed that the set of tools for putting pressure on Abu Dhabi is not so extensive. At first these are soft methods, requests, then warnings, threats and blackmail are used. The question is how sensitive this is for the UAE,” the political scientist explained in an interview with Izvestia.

According to him, the current situation is beneficial to the Emirates themselves.

— If trade turnover is growing, then why not make money. This is one of the trade principles that the UAE builds in trade relations with the Russian Federation,” the specialist notes.

At the same time, there is also a political principle. It is not spoken about, but it can be traced.

The analyst agrees: the influence of the United States on the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf is quite large - just look at how many American military bases are located in the Persian Gulf area on the territory of these countries. However, one gets the feeling that the Arab world is greatly burdened by American influence. At any moment, the United States may decide that some authorities in a particular country do not suit them, and the interlocutor does not rule out starting a chain of events to overthrow these authorities.

As an example, he cites the situations in Tunisia and Egypt.

— It happens that a serious change in the political landscape occurs in a country - for example, in Morocco the Muslim Brotherhood (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) has become very strong. The Arab monarchies do not like this prospect. They are looking for an alternative - to a greater extent in the person of China, to a lesser extent in the person of Russia,” the orientalist emphasized.

Andrei Ontikov also gave examples where Arab monarchies do not follow Washington’s policies. This includes the reconciliation of Saudi Arabia with Iran, and Riyadh’s refusal to release significant volumes of oil onto the market to reduce the cost of black gold. Attempts are being made to balance and reduce American influence at the expense of other players.

The analyst believes that the success of these attempts will depend not even on the countries of the region, but on China and Russia.

“If suddenly the Arab monarchies feel weakness on the part of Beijing or Moscow, they will quickly return to close cooperation with the United States. So they are watching very carefully the steps that China and Russia are taking,” the analyst concluded
This article originally apppeared in Russian at iz.ru and was translated and edited by Rhod Mackenzie