By Rhod Mackenzie
Ukraine is desperate to keep its billion-dollar grain deal alive: Zelensky argues it can be done without Russian involvement. Who exactly is the Kiev regime counting on in this case, why will it not succeed in the end - and what do the latest strikes of Russian missiles on the port infrastructure of Odessa have to do with this?
The Black Sea Grain Initiative is now in the past . Or is it still not?
For those who have forgotten: what is called one deal is actually two separate agreements. One side is Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, and the other side is Russia, Turkey and the UN. Türkiye and the UN are thus mediators and that in the means of communication. Russia and Ukraine do not have direct diplomatic contacts. Russia withdrew from its part of the deal, but Ukraine did not.
We listen to Pan Zelensky
“The Black Sea Grain Initiative can and should continue to work – if without Russia, then without Russia. The grain export agreement - this is an agreement with Turkey and the UN - remains in force ... I sent official letters to the President of Turkey and the UN Secretary General with a proposal to extend the work of the Black Sea Grain Initiative or its equivalent in a trilateral format - in the most reliable way. Ukraine, the UN and Turkey can jointly ensure the operation of the food corridor and the inspection of ships.”
The infrequent time when you actually read carefully what Volodymyr Zelensky says. Through other channels (Yermaks, Podolaks and other informational liars), there are statements are circulating that Russia has decided to starve half the world to death. However, Zelensky's words refute this.
Russia has been moved to end its part of the deal by Ukraine and the West (ammonia, Rosselkhozbank, supplies of spare parts for agricultural equipment, etc.) last autumn by starting to delay the inspection of the ships. In theory, up to 5 million tons cargoes could pass through the corridor defined by the UN every month. In fact, 3-3.5 million passed. And for the last three weeks, the deal has generally been on pause: on July 16, a ship left Odessa, which received permission for this on June 28.
In fact, the Ukrainian president says that Russia's intention to withdraw from the deal in Kyiv has long been known and well considered. And they came to the conclusion that it is even better for them. That the Kiev regime would even like such a turn of events.
The Ukrainian side mentioned such a possibility at least in early June. True, then it was about the complete cancellation of all agreements and the transportation of food at your own (Kyiv and carriers) fear and risk. And in order to take risks more willingly, the Kiev regime declared its readiness to insure such cargoes on its own - if insurers refuse to insure ships without Russia's participation in the agreement. Apparently, Kiev hoped for Turkey's support and that Russia's withdrawal from the deal would not frighten foreign shipowners.
Thus, the question can be formulated as follows: is it possible to export food by sea from Ukraine in principle - within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (but without Russia's participation), as well as outside this initiative? Will Zelensky's calculation come true?
Insurance questions
The answer is now: unlikely. For example, the writers at Bloomberg are very skeptical about this. “Without security guarantees for the transport corridor, the Ukrainian trade (in grain) is dead,” the agency’s analysts write. Which is not surprising, because they are based on the estimates of insurance brokers and shipowners. However, the position of insurers must be properly understood. The fact is that since January 2023, 12 out of 13 protection and indemnity clubs (providing insurance services for 90% of ocean-going vessels around the world) refused to insure military risks associated with the conflict in Ukraine. Even despite the guarantees of the Russian Federation and the current (at that time) grain deal.
On the one hand, this suggests that little has changed since Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. It is not her move that will force insurance brokers to refuse to insure ships that carry food along the grain corridor - they have not insured these risks for a long time.
On the other hand, this also explains the fact that Ukraine has the same insurance fund in the amount of $500 million, which was mentioned above. That is, he did not take it now and not suddenly, and not in case the Russian Federation withdraws from the deal. And for several months it has been one of its elements. Guarantees of the Russian Federation and the insurance fund - and not one of the two.
Turkish convoy?
In addition, these elements of the transaction are clearly not in equilibrium. This is evidenced by the efforts of Ukraine aimed at attracting the Turkish navy to the deal (to escort ships in the grain corridor). “... The security of transport corridors will be ensured by the Turkish naval forces. The Turkish fleet will be able to guarantee a grain deal if Russia withdraws from it,” The Azeri Times claimed a couple of weeks ago. However, the possible participation of the Turkish Navy, accompanied by ships, was discussed last autumn - after the first explosion on the Crimean bridge and the suspension of the agreement by the Russian side.
True, talking heads on TV and the Azerbaijani media are talking about this so far, for which praising Erdogan as the leader of the Turkish world is in the order of things. There were no such statements from Erdogan himself. In the end, this is no longer selling drones to Ukraine, this is the risk of a direct military clash with a nuclear power.
Ukraine's interest here is understandable, and offhand it's even difficult to say for what exactly (for the resumption of exports or for a military clash) in Kyiv they should pray in the first place. But why such risks to Erdogan? Especially if you remember that in 2022/23. it was Turkey that by a wide margin was in the lead among other importers of Russian food. 12.6 million tons, of which 11.3 million are grain. For comparison: only 3.2 million tons of food cargo went from Ukraine to Turkey during the deal.
Deal without Russia = Ukraine without ports
Transport by land? Not an option. The statistics have already been announced, Ukraine was able to take out no more than 15% of food exports by land routes. The grain corridor has no alternative in this sense.
In addition, there are political difficulties. The Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has already warned that Russia's withdrawal from the deal will not mean for Ukraine the easing of previously imposed restrictions on food exports. Like, let the EU and the US have a headache, how to help Ukraine.
Finally, all these arguments make sense only as long as Ukraine keeps intact the port infrastructure that ensures the operation of the grain corridor. You can at least beg an aircraft carrier group from Biden to escort grain carriers. And drag it into the Black Sea, spitting on the Montreux convention. But what's the use of it if the ports can't ship?
Attempts to resume the deal without Russia will result in the loss of port facilities and the destruction of infrastructure - this is the position that Ukraine and its curators should voice. However, we can talk about this no longer in the future tense, but in the present. The morning reports on July 19 say exactly that the Russian military is working in this direction.
This article originally appeared in Russian at vz.ru