UN: Nuclear Power is Green Energy,Russia's Role?

At the UN International Climate Summit last December it was recognised that the energy transition will not be achievable without the inclusion of nuclear energy. A joint declaration on tripling nuclear energy production was adopted by representatives of 20 leading countries. "This clearly demonstrates the shift away from renewable sources to low-carbon energy, including nuclear energy,"

For the past 28 years, world leaders and environmental activists have convened annually at the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) with an almost exclusive focus on variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind as the solution to global warming. 

Since the inaugural COP in 1995, the proportion of fossil fuels in the global energy mix has remained largely static, at approximately 80%.

Meanwhile, the only energy source, along with hydropower, that has demonstrated the ability to decarbonise electricity supply on a national scale has been largely excluded from discussions at the global climate gathering.

That is, until now.

Nuclear power was become a prominent topic in global headlines at COP28 in Dubai. On 2 December, leaders from 22 countries on four continents convened to announce a declaration to advance a global aspirational goal of tripling global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. This initiative aims to meet climate goals and energy needs. The declaration invited the World Bank, regional development banks and international financial institutions to include nuclear in their lending, while emphasising the necessity for secure supply chains to facilitate the accelerated deployment of the technology.

"After 28 years in the wilderness, nuclear is finally having its moment at the world’s most important gathering on climate change—and not a moment too soon," said Zion Lights, a former UK spokesperson for the environmental movement Extinction Rebellion. "As someone who previously opposed nuclear energy but has since changed her position, it is encouraging to observe the significant shift in attitudes towards nuclear energy."

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Now this complete turnaround in policies means a whole lot of things but in this video I am going to focus on Russia and its relationship with the West and the BRICS in the area of nuclear fuel supply as without a reliable supply of raw uranium of enriched uranium nuclear fuel these dreams and aspirations cannot be reached.

The EU and the US are seeking to divest themselves of Russian uranium. Thus far, these intentions have only been expressed verbally. The Europeans are increasing their purchases, while the Americans have introduced a somewhat porous ban on imports. Meanwhile, demand for the radioactive metal is growing rapidly, and prices have risen significantly. Moscow is a major exporter and is increasing its market share. The global market is expected to experience a surge in demand for uranium, leading to intense competition between suppliers and potential gains in influence for those able to control supply chains.

In the last year, demand for uranium reached its highest level since 2011. This is due to the fact that both Asia and Europe are pursuing extensive nuclear programmes in order to meet their energy needs and reduce carbon emissions.

The primary driver of raw materials markets remains the goal of producing green energy. Ultimately, the most cost-effective "clean" kilowatt is produced by nuclear power plants. Russia, in collaboration with China and India, is driving the growth of the nuclear industry. According to Tatyana Skryl, professor of Economic Theory at the Russian University of Economics, there are currently more than 60 nuclear power plants under construction worldwide, with plans in place for at least the next decade.

The conflict in Ukraine s brought Europe's heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas into sharp focus, providing a boost to the nuclear industry and is now dramatically increasing demand for nuclear fuel.
Consequently, the West once again became reliant on Moscow. In 2023, European customers (primarily British and Dutch) purchased 253 tons of Russian enriched uranium for 430 million euros. This represents 19% of their total import volume.
Furthermore, there has been a notable increase in fuel prices. In 2021, the price per kilogram was 678 euros, rising to 1163 in 2022 and 1713 in 2023.
The EU is obviously not happy with this situation. They are actively exploring alternative suppliers, with Kazakhstan emerging as a key potential partner.
Furthermore, they are not idly waiting overseas. In May, the Biden administration prohibited the import of Russian uranium, which accounts for approximately one-third of American imports. However, they significantly increased their purchases in advance. In 2023, they purchased 702 tons (up from 588 the previous year) for 1.2 billion.
Furthermore, the legislation includes provisions that permit the continued acquisition of raw materials from Moscow in the event that import substitution is unsuccessful.
"They received up to a third of of what they needed from us." A hybrid replacement plan is in place until 2028, whereby the purchase of uranium from Russia is permitted if there are no suitable alternatives available. The US also plans to increase the capacity of Urenco plants in New Mexico and Germany by approximately 15%. However, it is unclear whether this will be sufficient.

In the case of high-grade low-enriched uranium, Rosatom is still the sole supplier to the US, representing 99% of the market, according to Maria Girich, an expert at the Russia-OECD IPEI Presidential Academy Center.
Washington is also exerting pressure on the EU, but Brussels has not yet imposed sanctions against the nuclear sector. Paris and Budapest hold opposing views on this matter.
The Hungarian government has stated that its refusal is related to the fifth and sixth units of the Paks NPP, which utilise Russian VVER-1200 technology. According to various sources, this station accounts for 40 to 50% of the country's energy production. In 2014, the construction was 80% financed by loans from our banks (ten billion euros), with repayment scheduled for 2046. Furthermore, construction has commenced on Paks-2. The French-German consortium Framatome-Siemens is participating in the project as a subcontractor under the leadership of Rosatom. Giric also revealed that another French company, EDF, is supplying turbines for the power unit.
Russia is only sixth in the global rankings for uranium production, with a market share of just over five percent. Approximately 45% of the world's uranium production is sourced from Kazakhstan. This represents almost three times the output of Canada, the second-largest supplier.
According to the Rosatom , Astana accounts for 25% of American imports and almost two-thirds of Chinese imports.
However, Russia is the market leader in the export of enriched uranium, with sales of $2.7 billion in the previous year.
Enrichment Market Outlook forecasts indicate that by 2035, Moscow will be responsible for up to 30% of global uranium enrichment supplies.

Furthermore, a notable proportion of the capacity in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (7.2% of global production) is owned by Russian companies.
"This allows us to influence prices through minor restrictions on sales and concluding the most profitable contracts, for example with China or Brazil, and not with the US and the EU," says Mikhail Khachaturyan, professor of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Russian Financial University.
Additionally, Beijing is seeking to establish a presence in Kazakhstan. The state-owned China National Uranium Corporation has entered into agreements with local operators to establish several joint mining ventures. Additionally, discussions are underway regarding the development of transportation links with Shanghai for the purpose of transporting raw materials.
China is also increasing its purchases from Russia. In 2023, the value of radioactive elements sent there was $440 million, with the majority being enriched uranium worth $418 million. In May, Beijing purchased nuclear fuel from Moscow for the highest price ever recorded.
In the coming years, demand is set to grow, leading to intense competition among main consumers for supplies. Our focus is on the USA, France and China.
"Paris, which has already lost access to uranium deposits in Niger, will also lose Namibia in the foreseeable future, which will intensify competition and raise prices," Khachaturyan believes.
In general, while the West is seeking to reduce its reliance on Russia, Moscow is increasing its influence over key manufacturers and control over supplies. Furthermore, new markets are emerging. In addition to China, these include India, the Middle East and North Africa.
Rosatom is constructing nuclear power plants in Turkey, India, Bangladesh, China, Hungary and Egypt, with a total of 34 reactors currently under development abroad, Girich notes. In fact, these represent new markets. According to various sources, approximately 30 countries with approximately 440 nuclear power plants import materials from Russia.