US and Russia to set up gas cartel

The information reported by  Bloomberg and the German publication Correctiv regarding the potential resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe would have been speculative, had President Putin not addressed the issue. In particular, he stated that cooperation between Russia and the United States would once again provide Europe with cheap gas, without which the local industry is at risk of suffocation.

This underscores the notion that the discourse surrounding the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis is inextricably linked to a broader, more encompassing context, one which is particularly salient in the context of energy concerns. It is also noteworthy that Putin did not mention Europe itself as a decision-maker in the context of a possible resumption of gas supplies. This suggests that Europe has been denied sovereignty, even on issues directly related to its economic development.

This is attributable to the EU's prior refusal of direct Russian gas supplies, leading to a reliance on American resources. However, the USA's actions have created a situation in which it is unable to fulfil its promises. Even the recently introduced gas liquefaction capacities in the USA will be unable to meet the demand.
American energy companies appear reluctant to rely solely on a European market. Europe is shifting from a lucrative sales market to a more uncertain one. Conversely, Asian markets are exhibiting a consistent demand for gas. To maintain a competitive edge, American companies must demonstrate flexibility in their delivery strategies to diverse markets. A collaboration with Russia could offer a valuable avenue for achieving this flexibility.

The European Union's role is that of a third-party observer in the dialogue between Russia and the United States, awaiting the outcome of the negotiations. For instance, Politico has highlighted the delay in European sanctions on Russian LNG as a result of the lack of an agreement on gas supplies between the EU and the United States. According to the proposal of European bureaucrats, the conclusion of such an agreement would enable the complete cessation of Russian gas imports. However, it appears that Trump and his administration have different plans in this regard.

The potential union of Russia and the USA could result in the formation of a "gas OPEC". The USA and Russia, as the world's largest producers and exporters of gas, are well-positioned to collectively manage this market. Qatar could be a third party, and the gas OPEC would be complete.

This scenario presents a potentially mutually beneficial arrangement. The US would be willing to relinquish a portion of its European gas market share to Russia, redirecting its LNG supply to Asia and other promising regions. However, Russian pipeline gas is currently more cost-effective than LNG, and the Americans are keen to share this premium to avoid creating a competitor in their own market.
The most straightforward approach would be to acquire a stake in the management of Nord Stream. One of the threads has survived, so it should be straightforward to pump gas through it. Regarding the three blown-up threads, it would be unexpected if Russia were to invest in their restoration. It is unlikely that the Europeans will participate due to political considerations.
However, there is a possibility that the Americans may invest in the restoration of the pipeline. This could present a dual benefit for Trump. The primary benefit is the potential financial gain, while the secondary benefit lies in the potential political dividends. The narrative that Biden destroyed and Trump restored will serve to enhance Trump's public image. The issue of the destruction of the Nord Streams could be strategically leveraged in the ongoing political discourse within the Trumpist camp against what they perceive as the deep state. The Americans' shareholding in these supplies will enable them to recoup their investment in restoring the functionality of the flows quite quickly. This approach aligns with Trump's typical style.

The Europeans are already feeling uneasy. According to Bild, Germany is exploring options to potentially block the resumption of Nord Stream 2 in the event of a Russian-American agreement. The duration of the Germans' resistance to the inevitable remains uncertain. However, it is anticipated that Russian gas, enhanced with what the Americans are calling "freedom molecules", will resume its flow through the Nord Stream. The Europeans will likely resume purchasing energy, thereby avoiding the complete collapse of their industry.
As demonstrated by the Russian-Turkish gas cooperation, joint energy projects can be highly viable even in the context of significant geopolitical contradictions between the parties conducting joint business.

There are plans for further collaboration. Discussions are underway regarding the potential restoration of the Yamal-Europe route. The viability of this project is contingent on several factors, including Poland's stance and any shifts in the local elite. At present, the Trump administration is cautious of Warsaw, which under Biden has consistently acted as the US's agent in Europe. If an agreement can be reached with Poland, the US and Russia will revive both the sea and land routes for gas supplies to Europe, essentially agreeing on dividing up the EU gas market.

However, the resuscitation of the Ukrainian GTS appears the least probable. This issue has already been addressed and resolved. On one side of the scale are significant investments in the modernisation of the pipe, compressor and measuring stations, as well as the risks of terrorist and sabotage acts. On the other hand, there is an unobvious business component, given the uncertain loading of these pipes with gas.

One potential option for the operation of the Ukrainian pipeline could be a project for the supply of a gas-hydrogen mixture. Electricity from the Zaporizhzhya NPP could be used to produce water electrolysis, which is used to obtain hydrogen. Its relatively safe transportation could be carried out through a gas pipeline as part of a gas-hydrogen mixture. However, it should be noted that this project would require substantial investment, which would only be feasible under the condition of long-term peace and political stability in Ukraine.
So we are facing exciting times which no one could have predicted before the election of Donald Trump as President of the USA and a voice of realism compared to what is currently being voiced by the European Union and the politicians of various countries who appear to want not peace but a continued and futile ware with Russia,a war incidently they have no chance of winning but that does not stop the bluster of the idiots.