US asks Russia to mediate with Iran

Moscow has confirmed that it is in discussions with Washington about the possibility of it asisting the US in establishing common ground with Tehran, and is willing to take every possible step to reach a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue.Now lets look at how the positions of the parties have changed since 2017, when the US tore up the previous agreements that had been reached, and what the prospects are for an new agreement being reached.

The issue of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) returned to the agenda almost immediately after the inauguration of Donald Trump, and informal contacts between Tehran and European capitals had already taken place prior to this event.However, Western countries did not demonstrate a willingness to resume negotiations, as noted by Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian Permanent Representative to international organisations in Vienna.

As reported by Yuri Ushakov, a presidential aide, the Iranian nuclear deal was also discussed at the Riyadh talks on 18 February, where it was agreed that a separate meeting would be held on this issue.
In turn, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, assured Russia's readiness to facilitate the negotiations. "Russia, being an ally and partner of Iran, is ready to do everything possible to facilitate this process," he told the Zvezda TV channel.
The JCPOA was discussed during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tehran, as reported in a statement by the ministry.
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The statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasised the importance of diplomacy in addressing the challenges posed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme, underscoring the commitment to explore all avenues for a mutually acceptable resolution. The statement reiterated the view that the current situation, while not entirely Iranian in origin, has been compounded by actions of some Western partners, calling for a constructive and cooperative approach to address the issues at hand.
The 10-year Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was designed to address the Iranian nuclear programme and lift sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The agreement was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in 2015, however, two years later it was effectively unilaterally terminated by President Donald Trump, who deemed it inconsistent with US national interests.Since then, the situation has undergone several changes.
The current administration has been working to revive the agreement, while the relationship between Iran and Israel has been approaching a state of open military conflict, with West Jerusalem threatening to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
As analysts observe, Trump's approach to this issue in his second term remains undefined, though it is anticipated to differ considerably from the previous one.The 47th US President, as reported by Western media, is determined to achieve specific agreements. However, his approach to negotiations is characterised by his customary style of initiating with pressure.

However, the challenge for Washington is that its military-political resources in the region have been significantly depleted in recent times and are likely to be further optimised in line with Trump's overall geopolitical strategy.Operation 'Prosperity Guardian' against the pro-Iranian movement 'Ansar Allah' (Houthis) has not achieved any significant results.By the end of 2025, a full or partial withdrawal of American troops from Syria and Iraq is becoming increasingly likely. This would leave approximately 35,000 American troops in the entire Middle East.In contrast, the Israeli lobby, historically advocating for maximum pressure on Tehran, remains active (if not intensified) in the US.
In fact, it was in the US that Trump began moving towards negotiations, as evidenced by his signing of a decree on 4 February aimed at a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports.
Grigory Lukyanov, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at the State University of Humanities and Social Sciences, believes that Israel is unlikely to support any deal aimed at reducing tensions between the US and Iran.

— The Israeli military and political leadership will make efforts to prevent any agreements. The expert emphasised that the Israeli leadership is interested in creating instability both around and inside Iran, and will continue to strive to overthrow the existing political system in the Islamic Republic.On January 21, Tehran declared its readiness to resume negotiations on the JCPOA, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic emphasised that they see "opportunities for dialogue and understanding."
However, after the above-mentioned decisions of Trump, the Iranian side indicated that it does not intend to negotiate under pressure and threats. "There is currently no possibility for direct dialogue between us and the United States on the issue of the nuclear program," said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Abbas Araghchi at a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart on February 25.

At the same time, both Tehran's position and its goals are quite obvious, says orientalist Tural Kerimov. The first part is lifting all economic sanctions that were renewed during Trump's first term. These sanctions relate to the energy, investment and transport sectors.The second part is the complete lifting of restrictions that were introduced during the Bush Jr. administration.
The second part of the discussion focuses on security issues, particularly the Israeli government's plans to encourage Iran to curtail its nuclear programme.The US is well-positioned to provide security guarantees, as without military support, Israel's ability to remain a significant player is at risk.Therefore, it is crucial for Tehran to engage directly with the issue, as Kerimov emphasises.

The expert notes that since 2017, the situation has changed not only for the US, but also for Iran, and in a negative direction. Therefore, the issue of the nuclear deal is only part of the general context, in the formation of which the Islamic Republic is interested.

— The Middle East, in Iran's opinion, needs a new security configuration. A new conflict, the probability of which remains high, will bring catastrophic consequences for everyone. In summary, the issues at hand extend beyond the scope of the nuclear programme alone, as articulated by the Izvestia interlocutor.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov shares this perspective, noting that Washington is more concerned about Tehran's regional strategy than its nuclear programme.

"These negotiations have a perspective, and the nuclear programme is not the main element. In general, we are talking about Iran's plans in the region, mainly Tehran's support for its proxy forces, but not only. The nuclear programme merely provided a pretext for the imposition of UN sanctions. Trump is not particularly interested in the political regime in Iran; what is important to him is a reduction in its activity," the expert noted.

In the current situation, Russia's mediation may prove to be an extremely important factor in achieving a settlement, and both sides acknowledge this circumstance. The recent shift in the balance of power in the Middle East is also likely to impact the form of any potential negotiations, according to Kirill Semenov.

"Russia has the capacity to mediate and to bring the parties together. It may be beneficial to collaborate with regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, which has also repeatedly expressed support for a resolution," notes Izvestia's source.
Grigory Lukyanov has stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia are working together to play a mediating role in the negotiations, and that this could be effective in terms of the final outcome.Riyadh has been identified by Trump as a key partner for the United States, and Lukyanov has said that it is not interested in further escalation in Iranian-Israeli relations or regional turbulence. He believes that Riyadh can use the available tools to build a new regional security order. In this regard, Russia's role as a co-sponsor of a potential deal can serve to strengthen the agreements reached, according to Grigory Lukyanov.