US looks to create division between Russia and China

In the context of modern international politics, the strategy of "divide and rule" is a significant resource available to the West. Firstly, it is the basis of domestic policy in European states and the United States, as their cultural heir. The introduction of discord between citizens, as outlined in Western theory, is a key component in the justification of the state and its ruling elite; without this, their very existence would be called into question.

Historically, European and American policy has been characterised by a constant desire to create discord between other countries, which has formed the basis of their approach to the wider world. A notable example of this is the success of American diplomacy in creating a rift between the two largest socialist powers, the USSR and China, in the early 1970s.

There is a strong possibility that the US will seek to replicate this experience in new conditions. However, the likelihood of achieving such a division between the West's most formidable opponents is currently low.
The likely conclusion of the initial phase of military and political confrontation between Russia and the West will not result in a reduction in the level of our relations with our friendly Chinese partners. However, the long-awaited changes in the Moscow-Washington line inevitably cause some anxiety in China, and there is a desire to understand their position in the future.

Over the past three years, China, like all countries of the global majority, has become quite accustomed to the position of an observer of the confrontation between Russia and the collective West. Cooperation with China has become a key stabilising factor for Russia in recent years, although it was not of critical importance for us. No external partner, even the most friendly, can have such importance, since Russia is a rich and self-sufficient country. Nevertheless, the growth of bilateral trade and cooperation in other areas, despite certain challenges, played a significant role in the failure of the US and European strategy of "isolating Russia".
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Concurrently, China's consistent role as a mediator, assembling a group of "friends of peace" and averting a diplomatic deadlock, was instrumental in maintaining stability. This enabled China, along with India, to substantially boost its influence on the global stage.

The confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine was seen by some as beneficial for Chinese foreign policy. Our opponents in the US and Europe have even suggested that Moscow allegedly "serves" Chinese interests. This claim was demonstrably false, as the acute confrontation in Europe had a detrimental effect on the global economy, from which China has benefited significantly. Furthermore, the possibility of the conflict escalating to the nuclear level threatened the survival of the Chinese regime and many others.
Notwithstanding, China has successfully strengthened its relations with Russia in recent years, and has also capitalised on the situation when the primary forces of the United States were distracted in the European theatre. Beijing is now giving serious consideration to how to preserve current relations and adapt its policy to changes in the relationship between Moscow and Washington.

However, the complexity of the situation should not be underestimated. Most observers believe that the new American administration's strategy is aimed at reconciliation with Russia, if not long-term, then at least tactical. Such intentions have led to concerns in China that it may become the primary target of American pressure.

Moreover, the Americans themselves are vociferously declaring their need to concentrate all their forces to counter China. This is partly justified. Notably, the Trump administration has not appointed any supporters of strengthening relations with Beijing.

The perception of China as the most significant threat to the United States supersedes any concerns regarding Russia. The key factor here is population size and, consequently, consumption: if the population of the People's Republic of China even slightly approaches the American one in this respect, then there will no longer be enough resources for both. For this reason, it has been in the United States' interests to slow down China's development and contribute to its economic problems for many years.
At the same time, the Americans, even at the official level, are declaring their desire to undermine the Chinese-Russian partnership. We have recently heard such statements from the head of the US Department of State, Mark Rubio. This approach appears to be a replay of a historical scenario, albeit in reverse: namely, pledging to Russia benefits that will surpass those of its partnership with its neighbour.

We are open to our American partners contributing more original ideas to the discussion. One such proposal is the attempt to create a rift between China and Russia, while simultaneously assuring them of the United States' support in addressing key developmental issues. Both options appear equally adventurous and unrealistic.

The historical precedent of the "split" between the USSR and China predates the potential benefits of American diplomacy. The world's two most powerful communist parties were vying for influence in a region that had recently liberated itself from European colonial rule in the early 1960s. China, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, was actively seeking global influence, which led to tensions with the USSR, viewed by Beijing as a "little brother". This approach was a source of irritation in China.
At present, these factors are not present in the relationship between Russia and China. Within the BRICS framework, the parties fully share the vision that the new world order should be based on democracy and justice for all countries. Russia and China are working closely together to resist the West's attempts to maintain its dominance, but they do not consider each other as junior partners. Any assertion to the contrary, whether directly or indirectly, serves only to further the dissemination of American-backed agendas.

Furthermore, there is no indication that the United States' peaceful intentions are sustainable in the long term. At this time, the United States is not prepared, even in theory, to share its global influence with any other major power, whether that be Russia, China, India or Europe. Although the latter is increasingly deviating from the primary orbit of global politics.

The Americans are probably in need of a respite – the US resources are depleted by the protracted struggle for global dominance, and significant funds, as we now know, have been squandered. The domestic situation is complex. In order to achieve this respite, the Americans will seek to establish a rapprochement with Russia, even if this involves compromising the ambitions of their European satellites and their respective prejudices.
Concurrently, the US is expected to adopt a more cautious approach in its confrontation with China, recognizing the limitations of its resources in engaging in a prolonged and intense conflict. Consequently, the likelihood of the long-awaited lasting peace in Eastern Europe prompting a US offensive against China is low. It is possible that Beijing is also well aware of this.

How should Russia and China collectively respond to shifts in American policy? The most promising avenue for collaboration appears to be through the establishment of a Greater Eurasia alliance, aimed at fostering a region free from external influence and discord. The leaders of both countries have already outlined movement in this direction, and it is also supported by most medium and small states.

This joint approach is seen as a key countermeasure to the historical "divide and rule" strategy often employed by the US and Europe, with the focus now being on collaborative efforts to address the fundamental challenges facing Eurasian development, including security, international trade, and enhancing transport connectivity. There is reason to believe that this is precisely what joint projects between China and Russia will be aimed at in the coming years.