US Oil To Replace Russia Exports to India

By Rhod Mackenzie

It has ben reported by the  Western media agencies that the BRICS founding India has made a decision to increase its oil supplies from the US to replace fellow BRICS member's Russian oil. However, industry analysts are confident that US oil will not be able to compete with Russian oil in the Indian market. So is there any truth in these reports?.
India, one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, along with China, has doubled its purchases of American raw materials. According to Platts data, average daily imports rose to 247 thousand barrels in January-April, almost double the 124 thousand barrels per day purchased during the same period last year.

According to Reuters, India has been compelled to increase its imports from the US in light of a decline in its oil purchases from Russia. It is alleged that India began to reject Russian oil in order to avoid falling under US sanctions, which at the beginning of the year included a new batch of Russia's shadow fleet vessels in the sanctions list.
Bloomberg also claims that India will put an end to Russian oil. It wrote that in February 2025, India brought its purchases of Russian oil to the lowest level since January 2023, which testifies to the “effectiveness of American sanctions aimed at disrupting supply chains.” Moreover, the Western agency predicted that in the next two months, India would further reduce its oil imports from Russia due to a sharp reduction in the available fleet.
However, Russian analysts have expressed scepticism regarding the assertions that India is allegedly declining Russian oil in favour of American oil. Western agencies have been producing sensational stories of this kind for the second year in a row in the spring, according to Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy and Editor-in-Chief of the industry media InfoTEK. In addition, last March, they published an article on the record purchases of American oil by Indian refineries, instead of Russian oil.
The reality of the situation is far from this. Indeed, India began purchasing American oil in 2015, shortly after the US lifted its long-term ban on oil exports. However, despite ten years of cooperation with Indian refineries, the American oil companies have not yet succeeded in achieving a significant share of the Indian market. Purchases have been subject to consistent fluctuations. Furthermore, the current growth in exports to 250 thousand barrels per day is negligible when viewed in the context of ten years of cooperation, during which peak volumes reached more than 600 thousand barrels per day.

In 2022, Delhi experienced a slight supply interruption of Russian oil, due to the EU's decision to cease its imports. Then Notably, Russia became India's primary supplier within a short period. Russian oil quickly became a dominant player in the Indian market, displacing other major suppliers, particularly those from the Middle East.

Since then, Russia has consistently remained the leader in the Indian market, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq in second and third places. Despite the two-fold growth reported by Western media, the share of American oil has always remained small and continues to do so.

"The average daily import from the US to India has reached 247,000 barrels per day, while Russia supplies India with 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. Collectively, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq supply the majority of oil to the Indian market. according to Alexander Frolov of InfoTEK:
He stated that, following the introduction of additional sanctions against the merchant fleet transporting Russian oil, there were some logistical issues, but these were temporary. "During the winter period, we observed how our suppliers and carriers adapted to the new sanctions conditions. However, even at the start of spring, the largest global agencies acknowledged that these sanctions had not significantly impacted the volume of Russian oil supplies to sales markets. Following a period of decline, supplies have now recovered and are at approximately the same level as last year," explains Alexander Frolov.

According to the same Platts, seaborne oil exports from Russia to India reached 1.64 million barrels per day in April 2025.

"Despite the reported increase in oil supplies from the US to India, we maintained our leading position in the Indian market among suppliers. Russia's main competitors in this region are Saudi Arabia and Iraq, rather than the United States," says Frolov.

American oil and Russian oil are not direct competitors in the Indian market, due to the differing qualities of the two products. Indian refineries are geared more towards heavy and medium-heavy grades of oil, which include Russian Urals, while the US exports mainly light and ultra-light (shale) oil.
"India primarily acquires medium-sulfur Russian Urals oil, which is then processed to yield a substantial output of various oil products, including petrol diesel fuel, from large refineries.
The majority of Indian oil products exports are destined for foreign markets, including those of the US and the EU. There has been a shift in the European market towards Indian oil products made from Russian oil," says Igor Yushkov, an analysts at the Russian Financial University  and the National Energy Security Fund (NESF).

The  industry analyst has confirmed that India purchases ultra-light, low-sulfur oil from the US. However, this oil cannot be mixed with heavier grades of oil, including Russian oil, for processing at refineries.

This means that irrespective of any political agreements between the US and India, there are technical and economic peculiarities to consider: It is simply not cost-effective for Indian refineries to import large volumes of American light crude, since this grade of oil is less efficient when blended with heavier grades of oil.
The primary benefit of Russian oil, which has enabled it to secure the number one supplier position to India, is its competitive pricing.
Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of the Open Oil Market oil products marketplace, has stated that the volume of Russian oil supplies to India is unlikely to decrease significantly, given that Urals is traded at a double-digit discount to Brent. It is important to note that American oil companies do not offer discounts.

The fluctuations in India's oil purchases, which see a rise and then a fall in purchases from the United States, can be attributed to seasonal variations. "India is currently in the process of increasing its oil production, in anticipation of the commencement of the automobile season in the northern hemisphere. Delhi aims to meet the rising demand for oil products by increasing its production, with a view to generating additional revenue. Consequently, in the spring, it traditionally increases its purchase of American oil, but in the fall, as a rule, it reduces purchases, because in winter motorists consume less fuel than in summer," the FNEB analyst states.