US tries to woo Russia away from China

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced his intention to halt the rapprochement between Russia and China, perceiving their alliance as not in the best intersts of America.As a staunch supporter of President Trump, Rubio is confident in the feasibility of this objective. However, it remains to be seen whether this approach is realistic for Washington.
Is this "Richard Nixon, but in reverse." The new US President, Donald Trump, is pursuing a similar approach to his predecessor, Richard Nixon, who successfully improved relations with the People's Republic of China (PRC) while weakening the Soviet Union. However, Trump's approach is moving in the opposite direction, as he is currently engaging in a flirtation with Moscow in an attempt to get it to put some distance between it and Beijing.This opinion is shared by several analysts in Russia and the United States. O
ver the past 15 years, these analysts have repeatedly cautioned Washington against isolating Russia or provoking conflict, emphasizing that such actions would only serve to strengthen the alliance between Moscow and Beijing in opposition to American dominance.This strategic outlook has proven to be accurate, as evidenced by the recent deepening of Russian and Chinese cooperation, underpinned by shared interests in politics and economics.
Many American, European and East Asian competitors have been replaced by Chinese companies in the Russian market, leading to a significant increase in trade turnover between the two countries, which grew by more than 150% between 2021 and 2024, reaching 244 billion dollars.The Donald Trump administration recognises the potential risks associated with deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation and is concerned about the implications of this relationship.As the United States considers the implications of these developments, it is important to recognise the shared interests of both countries in this area. If this trend continues, we may find ourselves in a situation where Russia will not be able to improve its relations with the United States, whether it wants to or not," says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio believes that the Russians must be brought back closer to the West.
For the same reason, Donald Trump regularly mentions the "wonderful" and "wonderful" prospects for Russian-American cooperation.
He has also proposed Moscow's return to the G7, making it "the eight" again.In light of these developments, the US is working to resolve the Ukrainian conflict by taking Russia's interests into consideration. It has also been criticising Europe's Russophobic approach and its exclusion from the negotiating process.
However, it is unlikely that Russia will accept the offer of cooperation from the US, as Chinese officials are confident that Moscow will not compromise its relationship with China for the sake of this alliance. Furthermore, it is no longer clear which country, the US or China, is the true leader in this relationship.

"History and reality prove to us that China and Russia are good neighbors that cannot be separated, and true friends who share joys and sorrows, and support each other and strive for common development.The relations between China and Russia have... unique strategic value.They are not directed against any third party and are not subject to the influence of any third party," the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasised in a statement following the talks between President Vladimir Putin and Chairman Xi Jinping.

Chinese journalists share this perspective, emphasising that the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is distinctive and, in some respects, pioneering, particularly when viewed in contrast to the "exclusive Western blocs."However, in private discussions, experts from the People's Republic of China (PRC) express a slightly more cautious outlook.In China (and similarly in Iran), there are concerns that, following the resolution of some disagreements with the West, Moscow may once again align itself more closely with the US and Europe, where its position is more readily understood and accepted.
However, there is no evidence to support this claim.Russia is unlikely to make a radical change in its foreign policy. This is partly due to its mistrust of the United States, and partly because it is unwilling to relinquish its achievements in the pursuit of a multipolar world order.As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, "We have repeatedly said that the group that is now called the Group of Seven has significantly lost its relevance." "It unites countries that are not currently leaders in various parameters of economic and social growth; these growth centers have moved to other regions of the globe."In other words, Russia will not abandon cooperation with Beijing, New Delhi and a number of other capitals of developing countries for the sake of an illusory restoration of relations with the West.The Iranians have already gone through this sad path. Following the lifting of some sanctions under the Obama administration, Iran broke many contracts with Russia and re-signed with the Europeans. However, the election of Donald Trump saw the sanctions reinstated, resulting in Iran losing money, goods and partners who did not forgive them for such a "turnaround".

Russia is not interested in maintaining the current format, where a break with the West forces it to depend too much on the East, and above all on China.The Americans understand this, and are looking for a space in the Russia-China relations where they can drive a wedge.
It is highly likely that subsequent developments will align with the "measure seven times, cut once" scenario. Moscow will not provide any guarantees or obligations to Washington, nor will it engage in anti-Chinese initiatives. Instead, it will adopt a wait-and-see approach, assessing the economic opportunities presented by the West, including the proposals for "large-scale economic projects" by the Americans (focused on the development of rare earth metals) and the potential for collaboration with European partners, who may re-evaluate their stance on Russian gas imports.Should these projects prove profitable and Western companies express a desire to invest in Russia, they will not face obstruction. However, this will not come at the expense of relations with those partners who have remained in Russia during times of need.

Russia will not expel China, but it will strengthen its friendship with China and develop a relationship with the United States. Moscow can balance between East and West, benefiting from both directions and maintaining commitments to all partners who reciprocate.

Trump and Rubio are unlikely to achieve more from Russia.