Vietnam has not yet decided on joining BRICS

By Rhod Mackenzie

Vietnam is considering joining BRICS and determining its level of participation in the association, according to the country's embassy in the Russian Federation. However, the embassy did not confirm whether Vietnam has submitted an application for membership. Previously, the South African Foreign Ministry released a list of countries that have officially expressed their interest in joining BRICS, which includes Vietnam. Furthermore, Hanoi has not yet received an invitation to the group's summit, scheduled for October 2024 under the chairmanship of Russia. According to Sergei Lavrov, not only full members of the association but also BRICS partners are expected to attend the summit in Kazan. The reasons for Vietnam's delay in making a decision are discussed in the Izvestia article.

Vietnam is currently contemplating joining BRICS.
Several Southeast Asian countries are expressing interest in joining the BRICS group (which, since January 1, 2024, has included Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia) and are exploring potential partnerships. Vietnam, in particular, is considering membership in the association. The embassy of Vietnam in Moscow confirmed that the format of membership is currently under discussion.

The diplomatic mission stated that official positions on these issues are currently being developed.

The embassy did not confirm whether Vietnam has officially submitted an application to join BRICS. However, on August 7, 2023, South African Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation Naledi Pandor announced the list of countries that have applied to BRICS, which included Vietnam. The diplomatic mission referred to the only statement made by the authorities regarding BRICS, which was issued last year.
Like many other countries, we are monitoring the discussion on expanding membership in the BRICS group. Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Pham Thu Hang stated on August 17 that Vietnam, as an active and responsible member of the international community, consistently pursues a foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, multilateralism, and diversification of international relations. Vietnam is always ready to participate and play a vital role in the development of international relations by investing in global and regional multilateral mechanisms, organizations, and forums.
Vietnam is already actively participating in the BRICS+ dialogue, demonstrating Hanoi's willingness to cooperate with the group in some capacity. For instance, Vietnam was invited to attend a meeting in this format during the August 2023 summit in Johannesburg, which was chaired by South Africa.

In March 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced in an interview with the newspaper Izvestia that the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, chaired by Russia in October, would invite not only full members of the association but also countries participating in the BRICS+ dialogue. Lavrov also mentioned that a decision was being prepared for the summit to introduce a new category called 'partner country'. This format is being developed to accommodate the large number of people wishing to join the association. According to Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Ryabkov, as previously explained to Izvestia, it will be as close as possible to full membership. The Hanoi diplomatic mission did say that the Vietnamese side has not yet received an invitation to participate in the Kazan summit.
Who does Hanoi have to choose between?
Vietnam's lack of formal interest in unification probably indicates Hanoi's desire to maintain political balance. This is despite the fact that BRICS unites countries solely based on economic interests.

Earlier, Izvestia reported that Indonesia, another potential BRICS member, is delaying its decision due to the difficult geopolitical situation. Jakarta tries to remain neutral and prefers not to join blocs and alliances. The United States has expressed interest in having Indonesia join its QUAD or AUKUS defence formats. However, Jakarta is committed to maintaining ASEAN neutrality, which refers to the group of ASEAN countries. Indonesia is cautious about aligning too closely with China, as the BRICS group is often seen as a Chinese project rather than a Russian one. Joining the group could be interpreted as a political shift towards China, which may be viewed negatively by the United States and its allies.

It is important to note that the ongoing confrontation between the US and China is also affecting Vietnam. Despite difficult relations due to past military clashes and ongoing territorial disputes, China remains Vietnam's largest trading partner. Meanwhile, the United States considers Vietnam a key ally in the region in its confrontation with China. Although the two countries had a bloody conflict during the Vietnam War from 1955 to 1975, they have since restored interstate ties and are even increasing cooperation on security issues. Therefore, bilateral cooperation may provide more advantages than joining BRICS. For example, Americans are currently considering relocating their production from China to Vietnam, India, and Indonesia.

The United States has already created 60,000 jobs in Vietnam. BRICS cannot offer the same opportunities that the Americans are presenting to Vietnam. During an interview with Izvestia, Alexander Savchenko, a professor at the Department of Public Administration and Public Policy at RANEPA, stated that China can provide similar benefits to those offered by BRICS, as can Russia, albeit to a lesser extent than China.
Furthermore, Vietnam's potential membership in BRICS may face obstacles due to conflicting preferences within the association. During the Johannesburg summit, the Chinese delegation pushed for the inclusion of Ethiopia, despite the existence of other African candidates.

Algeria was also considered as a potential member, but a compromise was reached and Ethiopia was ultimately chosen. It is likely that a similar situation will arise with Vietnam, given its strained relations with China. Vietnam is a strong candidate, but it is possible that another candidate may emerge later.

The RANEPA professor emphasized that Russia welcomes all partners, but the expansion of BRICS is a complex process from both political and economic perspectives. The selection of members is always a specific and situational choice.

According to Kirill Kotkov, head of the Center for the Study of Far Eastern Countries in St. Petersburg, Vietnam is a rapidly developing country in Southeast Asia that has successfully weathered the pandemic.

Vietnam benefits from low labour costs, positive population growth, and its strategic location, which boasts the best bays and harbours in Eastern Indochina. This is about the potential for geological exploration of the South China Sea shelf. Vietnam is the most populous country in Indochina, with a strong intellectual potential due to the rapid development of their education sector. Kotkov also noted that Vietnam has good engineers.
In 2022, Vietnam's total export-import turnover reached a record $732 billion, propelling the country into the top 20 global economies for international trade. Furthermore, in 2023, labor productivity increased by 3.65% compared to the previous year, thanks to the improved skills of workers.

In 2023, Vietnam's GDP grew by approximately 5%, one of the highest rates in Southeast Asia. Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, a senior researcher at the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the ICSA RAS, noted this in an interview with Izvestia. Vietnam can now serve as an industrial site, which is particularly important for China. Joint cooperation in the development of natural resources is closely developing with Russia.