Why does Europe talk about war with Russia?

By Rhod Mackenzie

Several high-ranking European politicians and military officials have recently made statements predicting a potential conflict between NATO and Russia. Additionally, Bild published what they claimed were 'secret plans' of the North Atlantic Alliance outlining a scenario for repelling Russian aggression.Who exactly has an interest in escalating tensions in Europe.

On January 11, the Swedish Minister of Civil Defense, Karl-Oskar Bohlin, stated at the annual Folk och Försvar (People and Defense) conference that, after 210 years of peace, it is time for the country to prepare for war. On the same day, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called on his fellow citizens to be prepared to defend their values, even if it means sacrificing their lives. The head of government stated that Sweden is facing a new and more dangerous reality and suggested that joining NATO would enhance the kingdom's security.

It is worth noting that Sweden started preparing for an attack by a major power almost three years ago with the adoption of a special government plan called 'Total Defense 2021-2025'. This plan included a 40% increase in military spending and a tripartite agreement with Norway and Denmark to deepen cooperation in the defense sector. It is important to note that Sweden has been participating in NATO partner programs and operations since the mid-1990s.
The response of Swedish society to the statements made by government officials can only be described as panic. Local media reports that citizens cleared essential goods from store shelves within a matter of days. Expressen newspaper reported a several thousand percent increase in sales of portable radios and an 800% increase in demand for flashlights and water cans.

As a result, Kristersson was forced to urgently reassure his compatriots. The Prime Minister stated that the widespread anxiety was 'out of control'. He reassured the public that although the risk had increased, there was no indication that war was imminent.

On December 16, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned in an interview with Die Welt that Europe may face military threats by the end of this decade. He suggested that weapons production should be increased within five to eight years to prepare for such threats. On December 19, Admiral Michel Hofmann, Chief of Staff of the Belgian Armed Forces, spoke about the urgent need to prepare for a potential conflict with Russia.

Two weeks later, Lieutenant General Martin Wijnen, commander of the Dutch Armed Forces, expressed similar concerns. In an interview with De Telegraaf, he stated, 'The Netherlands must seriously fear war, and our society must prepare for it... Russia is becoming stronger.' He also cautioned against assuming safety due to distance, saying, 'We shouldn't think that we are guaranteed safety just because we are 1,500 km away.'
The British government did not stay neutral in the discussion. Defense Minister Grant Shapps cautioned his fellow citizens about potential conflicts not only with Russia, but also with Iran, China, and the DPRK. It is noteworthy that he did not announce any plans to increase the kingdom’s defense capability in connection with the 'pre-war situation.'

On January 14, Bild published the German government's 'secret action plan.' The publication reports that NATO is developing a scenario in which, following the 'inevitable' defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states, the Russian Armed Forces will increase their activity on their borders. In response, the North Atlantic Alliance will deploy 300,000 troops to the eastern flank, potentially leading to a large-scale conflict with the Russian Federation.
The article caused a reaction in both Russia and NATO countries, despite the subsequent comment by the director of Stratcom (NATO Strategic Communications Center), Janis Sarts. He described the plot described by Bild as an imaginary situation to test military capabilities.

Meanwhile, six months ago in the same publication, an article titled 'This is what will happen if Putin attacks us' described the same scenario: the Kaliningrad region and the border of Belarus and Lithuania as a theatre of military operations, with 300,000 soldiers, mainly from the Bundeswehr, deployed to the east. Meanwhile, the number of NATO forces stationed near Russia's borders, as reported in Bild's 'secret plans', was officially approved at the Vilnius summit and documented by the alliance. Therefore, Bild's publication created a sensation out of nothing, using both open data and its own material from six months ago. It is worth noting that this publication coincided with a number of loud statements about an 'imminent war'.
According to Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the IMI MGIMO, Bild has a distinct reputation in Germany.

It is considered a unique media phenomenon due to its combination of 'yellow press' style and extensive correspondent network worldwide. While some criticize the publication for its scandalous and tasteless content, its coverage is widely known. Izvestia's source emphasized that this is a significant factor in any information war, both within Germany and beyond its borders.

In fact, both Russian and foreign experts acknowledge that there is a growing awareness of the current state of the European defence industry, which is evidently unprepared for the ongoing geopolitical changes. This is particularly evident in the events leading up to and following the United States elections. The second edition of Bild's 'secret plans' refers to them as the paralysis of the American political system. Furthermore, Europeans are aware that if Donald Trump were to return to power, US policy towards other NATO members would be reevaluated. This would inevitably require substantial financial investments and an increase in national defense budgets. As a result, American assurances of European security would no longer function in the same capacity.

In these conditions, the European military-industrial complex, which has been limited for 30 years by both the lack of necessity and competition from overseas, requires an urgent reboot in terms of both production quantity and quality.
The Ukrainian crisis has highlighted these problems clearly. The Russian army ground up the weapons stored in warehouses in Eastern Europe and the former GDR by February 2022. Current production volumes are insufficient in conditions of high conflict intensity and political uncertainty. Long-term export contracts have limited the government's ability to place orders. Bureaucratic difficulties within the EU, chronic personnel shortages, and technological lag in several areas were revealed during the conflict. Perhaps most importantly, the unpreparedness of European society for war against the backdrop of economic crisis trends has led politicians to rethink security approaches. Furthermore, negative factors are particularly evident in Germany and France, the EU's largest arms manufacturers with the largest armies.

According to Artem Sokolov, the willingness of German society to engage in conflict with Russia is low.
The first reason for Germany's reluctance to participate in serious military conflicts is not sympathy for Russia, but rather the state of the Bundeswehr itself. Additionally, the country's population generally adheres to pacifism, which includes a reluctance to sacrifice themselves for Germany, the EU, or the West as a whole. Any necessary changes will require time and a corresponding transformation of social life. The expert concludes that a conflict with a country such as Russia, resulting in a high number of casualties, would be a shock for Germany.
In late 2023, Berlin announced that it would double its military assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total amount to €7 billion. It is noteworthy that this decision by the German government received criticism from Brussels. EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton, accused Berlin of not participating in pan-European affairs. He stated, "Today we see that Germany is attempting to act unilaterally. In particular, it is attempting to withdraw support from the European Peace Foundation." Artem Sokolov suggests that the reason for this is the desire to increase military assistance to Kyiv at the expense of the European Union. According to the expert, Brussels not only demands high expenses but also organizational efforts to attract those states that may evade these actions.
The example of France, the world's third-largest arms exporter after the United States and Russia, is indicative. On January 17, the Elysee Palace announced the preparation of a security agreement to guarantee Ukraine's security. The President of the Fifth Republic, Emmanuel Macron, stressed that this agreement will enable France to supply more equipment to its partners, including the Caesar howitzers they are waiting for.

As noted by the head of the regional problems and conflicts sector at IMEMO. Today, Paris is faced with the challenge of replenishing its reserves without losing its global market share.

Unlike Germany and Eastern European countries, France did not store a surplus of weapons accumulated since the Cold War. Any surplus was dismantled or sold over the years. Meanwhile, Paris provided a lot of support to Ukraine and, as a result, now needs to rebuild its defense capability. Meanwhile, France has held a significant share of the global arms market, exporting to countries worldwide. It is crucial to maintain this export capacity. Macron recognises this and is striving to strike a balance, as the expert concludes.
For the past two years, EU officials and politicians have discussed the importance of revitalising the European military-industrial complex. For the past two years, EU officials and politicians have discussed the importance of revitalising the European military-industrial complex. However, the current outcome is not satisfactory. The plan to provide Ukraine with one million shells within a year was only partially fulfilled, with just over a third being delivered.
The question of a 'European army', which was recently called for by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, as well as statements about providing assistance to Ukraine 'as long as needed', are also part of this context.