Why does Trump want Greenland

A Song of Ice and Metal: Is There Any Benefit for Trump in Buying Greenland?The island has potential for resource extraction, but its development will require significant investment.
Recently, there has been a resurgence of discussions regarding the potential acquisition of Greenland by the United States. If previously the elected American president spoke about buying the island (a separate question is who exactly would buy it from), now Donald Trump does not rule out a forceful scenario for resolving the issue. The largest island in the world, which is sparsely populated and not well suited to full-fledged life, is of interest to the US primarily for geopolitical and military purposes. However, it would be remiss to overlook its significant commercial potential, which is currently underutilised.
So why does he want it and what would he do with it?

Lets look at the economy of Greenland and its potential to attract American businesses that are selective in their investments.

From an economic perspective, Greenland is not considered a superpower. With a nominal GDP of approximately $3.5 billion, it is a negligible player on the global stage. However, this GDP is divided among a population of less than 56,000 people, resulting in a per capita GDP of $56,000. This figure is significant even within European economic standards. For comparison, the GDP per capita in Germany is $55 thousand, and in France, it is $48 thousand. Notably, Greenland lacks large cities, where a disproportionately large part of the national income is typically generated. This suggests that it could be considered the richest rural country in the world.
As an autonomous part of the Danish Crown, Greenland is not a member of the EU, unlike the mother country. In 1972, Greenland joined the European Economic Community, but this move was considered harmful to national interests. Following a referendum in 1985, the island left the community, but retained full access to the European common market.

The key industry in Greenland has always been marine fishing. While in the 18th-19th centuries, the Inuit primarily hunted sea animals and whales, later on, the island's main products became fish and other edible sea products, ranging from halibut to shrimp.

The fishing industry is a significant economic driver, contributing over 50% of the country's GDP, approximately 90% of exports, and providing employment for around 6,000 individuals, constituting approximately 15% of the total workforce. It is noteworthy that the majority of fish factories are owned by state-owned enterprises. This enables the government to effectively regulate fishing quotas, thereby preventing overfishing and the subsequent depletion of fish stocks. Greenland is critically dependent on the latter. The country's key buyers are Denmark (about half of all supplies), Great Britain, and Japan. Notably, Greenland has an agreement with Russia, allowing Russian fishermen to fish in the exclusive economic zone of the seas around the island and vice versa.
The situation may change in the near future. Greenland's total area spans 2.1 million square kilometres, which is only 3.5 times smaller than the smallest continent, Australia. Approximately 80% of the territory is covered by an ice cap, which limits the potential for natural resource exploitation. The remaining territory is comparable in size to a large European state, not to mention the shelf. Given the ongoing rate of global warming, it is expected that more and more land will be released from under the glacier, although this process will take hundreds and even thousands of years.

Nevertheless, minerals have been sought in Greenland for quite some time. Following the oil crisis of the 1970s, the island's potential for hydrocarbon resources became a focal point, as the demand for oil and gas surged worldwide. Significant discoveries in offshore areas belonging to Norway and Great Britain prompted efforts to explore similar potential in Greenland, with a focus on the shelf and deep-water regions to the west of the island. However, these initial efforts met with limited success.
Exploration efforts in the 1990s, which included participation from ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell, did not yield substantial results. In 2021, the island's government took the decision to implement a ban on drilling and geological exploration, with only three small areas remaining where licenses are set to expire in 2027-2028. The primary rationale cited was environmental concerns, though the enthusiasm of Greenlanders for the potential oil and gas in the subsoil has waned. The volatility of the hydrocarbon market has also contributed to this shift in sentiment.

In the 2000s, the US Geological Survey estimated that Greenland and its surrounding seas held 31.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves. While these figures are not on par with those of major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia or Iraq, they are comparable to the reserves of significant oil-producing countries such as Nigeria.

Despite these expectations, oil production in Greenland has not yet commenced. The challenges associated with extracting hydrocarbons in the Arctic are well-documented and have proven to be financially burdensome. This challenge is shared by all countries operating in the region. Furthermore, the risks are high in areas where it is still not known for certain whether there is oil and gas there and whether it is possible to extract reserves with economic efficiency using current technologies. Consequently, the topic has been postponed for at least the next few years, barring any change in the political situation.
It is possible that there are a number of interesting minerals to be found in the depths, in addition to oil and gas. Today, Greenland produces anorthosite (a stone used in facing), as well as sapphires and rubies, but only in two mines. While these minerals are of interest, they are not significant contributors to the country's overall economic balance. However, the country's geological exploration extends to a wide range of items.

For instance, the Disco-Nuussuaq project attracted significant global attention in 2021 due to the reported discovery of a substantial deposit of nickel, copper, platinum and cobalt. Prominent investors such as Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have strategically invested in Bluejay Mining, the company developing the site. The organisation itself stated that the nickel deposit would be comparable in scale to Norilsk. While the results are encouraging, further details are required, including estimates and the commencement date for mining operations, to provide a more comprehensive assessment.
Another promising area is rare earth elements, of which Greenland may be a significant source. These elements are vital for the development of green energy and necessary in the context of a gradual transition away from carbon resources. Greenland has already signed memorandums of intent with the EU and the US, and is currently in dialogue with China. However, it should be noted that significant obstacles still need to be overcome. For instance, in 2021, the government imposed a ban on uranium mining in a move that coincided with the decision to halt oil extraction. However, the potential exists for the extraction of rare earth elements at the Kuannersiut project, which has been under development by the Australian company Greenland Minerals for 15 years, in conjunction with raw materials for nuclear fuel.

The challenges associated with extracting the country's substantial mineral deposits, including metals and other minerals, are comparable to those encountered in oil extraction, primarily due to the harsh natural conditions. The fjords in the north of the country are covered with ice for most of the year, which makes work and especially the export of products extremely difficult. In the southern region, the situation is more favourable, with the waterways generally ice-free during the summer months. However, there is a lack of standard infrastructure in these areas. Significant investments are required to develop the mining industry, which companies will only undertake in the event of a truly significant discovery.

However, the situation is expected to improve over time due to natural causes. The Arctic is becoming increasingly ice-free on a decade-by-decade basis, a process that also impacts Greenland. It is anticipated that within the next 20 to 30 years, summer navigation will become feasible in all Arctic territories, and in some areas, navigation may be possible without icebreakers during winter.
Greenland's strategic location in close proximity to the Northwest Passage, a navigable route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is a significant asset. This geographical advantage, which is particularly beneficial for transport and trade, has been further highlighted by the recent ice-free conditions in the Northwest Passage in 2007. This was repeated in 2016.While there is no significant traffic yet, paleoclimate data show that 8,000 years ago, at the height of the largest warming of our interglacial period, the Northwest Passage was ice-free all summer. Current warming may be even more significant.The problem with the passage is its shallowness, which limits the movement of large-capacity vessels.

While Greenland is currently experiencing a period of low temperatures, this is not a limiting factor in the long-term outlook. The ice cap represents a significant opportunity, acting as a natural cooling system for data centres, a sector that is expected to expand significantly in the future. The primary concerns at this time relate to the power supply and the establishment of reliable communication links with the mainland.

While Greenland's immediate prospects may appear limited at present, the potential exists for the discovery of substantial natural resources, though significant investment will be required for their development. While there are no immediate benefits for corporations ope