Why has President Biden invited the heads of Central Asian states to a meeting in New York?

By Rhod Mackenzie

The US president Joe Biden hopes to meet the presidents of the Central Asian states on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on either 19 or 20 September. This will be the first time that negotiations have been held at the level of heads of state, as opposed to foreign ministers. Analysts believe that the American president will insist that the five republics comply with the anti-Russian sanctions; the second issue will be about countermeasures against China.

What do we know about the agenda
The event is expected to take place on either 19 or 20 September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. "I hope you can join me for a formal meeting to discuss our shared security, economic, and environmental goals," reads the invitation from the US presidential administration.

This will be the first time that the heads of the five countries have been invited to participate to in the talks, which have been preceded by regular meetings between foreign ministers and the US Secretary of State since 2015. At the same time, the response of Central Asian leaders to Biden's initiative has been rather sluggish. Tajikistan's foreign ministry reported that Emomali Rahmon had not yet made a decision on whether to attend. Kyrgyzstan said that Sadyr Japarov's trip "has not yet been announced".
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, alluding to the upcoming summit, noted that unfriendly states were putting pressure on Moscow's partners. "If we call a spade a spade, we are talking about attempts to use threats and coertion to force our allies to abandon their legal cooperation with Russia. We understand that under external pressure our partners are forced to be cautious. Naturally, we are taking countermeasures," he said.
What are the Central Asian countries' current relations with the United States?
US officials have repeatedly said that they are monitoring the actions of the Central Asian countries. "We are closely monitoring their compliance with sanctions. We are also discussing the related economic impact with our partners," said Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a visit to Astana in February. For her part, Anjali Kaur, a representative of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), admitted that Washington was trying to "decouple" Central Asia from the Russian economy.

At the same time, all the five countries in the region continue to interact positively with Russia. At the end of 2022, trade turnover between Russia and Kazakhstan increased by $2 billion, reaching a record high of $26 billion.At the same time, the structure of the trade has changed significantly. "There has been a significant increase in the supply of products that were not previously on offer. These are parallel imports - industrial equipment, projectors, computer equipment, cars, all high value-added products that are in great demand in Russia," says Erlan Shamishev, Economic Attache at the Kazakh Embassy in Moscow.
The situation in other republics is similar. The trade turnover between Russia and Uzbekistan increased by 23% at the end of 2012, reaching almost $10 billion. This year Moscow and Tashkent are expected to exceed the $12 billion barrier. Russia and Kyrgyzstan last year for the first time in the history of bilateral relations had trade of.4 billion. In Bishkek it was noted that the growth rate was so sharp and high that there is a lack of available warehouse space in the republic.

Other indicators also show positive dynamics. In Kazakhstan, for example, the number of companies with Russian investment capital increased by 70% last year, most of them small and medium-sized enterprises. In Uzbekistan, just 2 years ago there were 2,000 joint ventures,; now there are around 3,000. In Kyrgyzstan, there are about 300 companies with purely Russian capital. The remittances from Central Asian migrants working in Russia also continue to play an important role for a number of the republics. For example, according to the World Bank, remittances sent back from Russia accounted for about half of Tajikistan's GDP last year.
There ar also major investment and infrastructure projects nderway. For example, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have formed a "triple gas alliance". and the work is also ahead of schedule. Initially, final agreements on fuel transit were expected to be signed at the end of this year, but this summer the parties agreed to start deliveries in the fourth quarter. Tashkent believes this will help it get through the winter demand peak and avoid an energy crisis.

In general, the economies of allthe Central Asian countries are performing well, with average GDP growth expected to be around 5% by the end of the year. Central Asian leaders and businesses make no secret of their intention to take full advantage of the window of opportunity opened by the Russian economy's reorientation away from the West. "We are witnessing the formation of a new economic geography of the world," said Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in one of his recent speeches.
At the same time, the United States is trying to put pressure on the Central Asian republics to reduce their contacts with Russia. In July, for example, Washington imposed sanctions on four Kyrgyz companies for allegedly supplying prohibited technologies to the Russia. In August, restrictions were imposed on a Kazakh company. In addition, the US Treasury threatened sanctions over the use of Mir cards, prompting the region's largest banks to stop working with the payment system.

When it comes to compensation, Washington does not have much to offer. In February this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that $25 million would be made available to countries in the region to diversify trade routes. In mid-September, there was also talk in the US Senate of lifting the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which formally prevents normal trade relations with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. At the same time, the American press admits that the actual impact of this norm is zero; the gesture will be purely symbolic.
What the analysts say
Eduard Solovyov, the head of the Centre for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, believes that during the negotiations in New York, Joe Biden will urge his guests to comply with the sanctions imposed.

• Washington has certain levers of pressure at its disposal. In Kazakhstan, for example, a significant part of oil production is controlled by Western companies. There are a number of financial instruments. At the same time, the Americans are not offering any "goodies". They seem to think that their bluster is convincing enough without them," he notes.
  Andrei Grozit,the head of the Central Asia department at the Institute of the CIS Countries, also stresses that the United States wants to reduce Russia's influence in the region, but does not offer anything positive in return.

• There are no large-scale projects that the Americans can offer. There is no talk of easing the visa regime or accepting migrant workers. Biden will probably utter some pompous words and advise moving 'to the right side of history', and that will be the end of the discussion about Russia," the source says.

Grozin adds that the second important topic at the New York meeting will be about cooperation between Central Asia and China.

• The situation there is similar. In a number of parameters and in certain sectors of the economy, China is indispensable for the region, and together Moscow and Beijing obviously dominate. It's hard to see what the Americans can do about it. Apparently, they will use "petty foul" tactics - harming individual projects, throwing a spanner in the works of one initiative or another, trying to put pressure on the elite through their network of NGOs and media resources, he concludes.